116
FXUS64 KSJT 300704
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
204 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

This afternoon, a weak outflow boundary was moving southwestward
through west central Texas. Temperatures were in the mid to upper
80s with dewpoints in the 60s. Although CAPE values are around 3000
J/kg this afternoon, a stronger ridge is in place today than
yesterday which should be a tougher cap for potential convection to
fight through. As a result, instability this afternoon and evening
looks rather conditional and any showers or storms should be fairly
short lived.

Later this evening, mainly after sunset, a weak wave should approach
the Trans-Pecos area where CAPE values are around 5000 J/kg. Storms
look to develop over the Davis Mountains, where the best convergence
is located, and move northeastward toward Crockett County.  Any
storms that develop have chances for large hail and damaging winds
due to the better mid-level lapse rates in this area.

Thunderstorm chances look to ramp up again tomorrow as southerly
surface flow increases and brings higher dewpoints into west central
Texas. Models show CAPE values in the 3000-5000 J/kg range.  An
upper-level wave moving through the central Plains could result in
some scattered thunderstorms developing early tomorrow morning
across the Big Country, so PoPs were confined to this location.
Higher chances, however, exist late in the afternoon to early
evening just after peak heating for areas further south.  Storms
should fire along the dryline, which models show will be located
from the Panhandle southward through the Permian Basin. Another
upper-level impulse moving into the Panhandle should provide plenty
of support for development as they push eastward into our county
warning area in the evening. Given the location of the wave, areas
most likely to be impacted by storms will be from the Concho Valley
northward.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Rain chances will continue across West Central Texas Friday into
Saturday, with a gradual drying trend Sunday into early next week. A
Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) is forecast to track across much
of the area Thursday night into early Friday morning. The NAN Nest
and to a lesser extent the HRRR show another round of storms moving
from northwest to southwest across the area later Friday morning. If
this does occur, it might limit our storm potential for later in the
day. Otherwise, additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be possible during the afternoon. A weak cold front may also serve
as a focus for convection. Strong to severe thunderstorms will again
be possible, with large hail and damaging winds being the main
concerns. Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 80s across the
Big Country and much of the Heartland to the upper 80s to lower 90s
elsewhere.

On Saturday, an upper level ridge will remain centered across
northern Mexico, with West Central Texas in west flow aloft. The GFS
indicates a disturbance tracking across the area late in the day,
resulting in the development of showers and thunderstorms to our
west, with this activity then tracking across the forecast area late
in the day and into the overnight hours. The ECMWF is drier, so for
now have kept PoPs in the low end chance category. Highs on Saturday
will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s. On Sunday, isolated showers and
thunderstorms will again be possible, mainly confined to the Big
Country and Heartland. Highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Upper level ridging will begin to build into the region by early
next week, with an increase in temperatures through the middle of the
week. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid 90s to near 102.
Slight chance PoPs return to the area by the middle of next week.
Isolated mainly diurnally driven convection is possible on the
eastern periphery of the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Veil of high clouds continues across West Central Texas terminals
early this morning, with some patchy MVFR cigs peeking out
occasionally. This will largely continue through sunrise, with
mainly VFR conditions at many sites but some some brief MVFR cigs
as well. We continue to monitor the 1 storm across the eastern
Permian Basin as well as Eastern New Mexico but radar trends
suggest neither of these is likely to be a problem through 12Z at
least. Latest CAMs do show much more widespread convection
possible this afternoon and will insert a PROB30 into all of the
sites to account for this possibility for now. Latest forecasts
should be able to provide some more fine tuned timing later.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     89  64  80  68 /  30  70  50  20
San Angelo  94  67  90  70 /  20  40  40  20
Junction    95  70  92  72 /  20  40  30  20
Brownwood   88  65  81  69 /  30  70  60  30
Sweetwater  91  65  81  68 /  30  70  50  20
Ozona       91  70  90  70 /  20  30  20  10
Brady       89  67  83  69 /  20  50  50  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...07