Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
436 FXUS65 KSLC 292158 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 358 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A cold front continues through the region through the remainder of the evening, bringing chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms over the northern two-thirds of the area. Cooler conditions prevail tomorrow alongside largely dry conditions. Warmer conditions return heading through the weekend, allowing for a return to above average temperatures. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Friday)...A cold frontal boundary, albeit weak, will continue to push through the forecast area through the remainder of the day. Along this boundary, isolated convection will continue to pop and bring an isolated threat of strong outflow wind gusts in excess of 50 mph. Most of the threat of these strong winds will be confined to areas south of the boundary where the extremely dry sub-cloud environment remains. That said, model guidance indicates a dry sub-cloud environment will remain in place, however, the depth of the dry layer will be much less than the areas south of the boundary... providing less opportunity for acceleration of downdrafts. Heading through the evening hours any convection that remains will diminish as heating is lost, eliminating the overall threat of strong outflow winds. The trough associated with the cold front will continue to track eastward tomorrow, allowing high pressure to reestablish over the eastern Great Basin region. That said, cooler overhead temperatures will remain in place which will help to bring cooler temperatures across much of the forecast area tomorrow. Daytime highs will be right around seasonal normals for southern Utah and about 5 degrees below normal across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. Largely dry conditions are anticipated across the region tomorrow, however, enough heating and low level moisture may remain in place over far southern Utah to pop an isolated shower off the highest terrain (specifically in the Boulder Mountain area). .LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Friday), Issued 430 AM MDT... The beginning of the long term portion of the forecast and subsequent end of the work week will be punctuated by transient shortwave ridging across the region. This will usher in a brief warming trend, which is expected to briefly peak on Saturday, when temperatures will rise to around 10F above normal from central Utah northward to around 5F above normal across southern Utah. There is good consensus in the passage of a mainly dry cold front for Sunday, which will drop temperatures down a couple of degrees as well as bring the risk for isolated showers and storms across northern Utah and SW Wyoming both Saturday and Sunday afternoon/early evening. Brief, transient shortwave ridging then builds across the area Monday before potentially another grazing trough and associated mainly dry cold front swings across northern Utah and SW Wyoming late Monday into Tuesday. This feature is represented by roughly 3/4 of the model solution space, whereas previous runs were building a ridge of high pressure into the region by this time. That said, nearly all available ensembles and their associated members build a strong ridge across the PacNW and Northern Rockies from the middle of next week into at least next weekend. The strength of this ridge is challenging 30-year model climatology by the end of next week, which could portend record- challenging temperatures by the end of next week, particularly across northern Utah. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Isolated showers could impact KSLC mainly between 23-01z, with erratic outflow winds up to 40kts possible and a 15% chance of lightning. Gusty northwest winds will continue, until roughly 02z...though gusts up to 20kts could linger until 06z (30% chance). Winds will likely remain light out of the northwest through the overnight hours, though there is a 25% chance they switch to light and southeasterly. VFR conditions will prevail. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through roughly 03z, though a few isolated showers are possible through 06z just north of KCDC-KBCE. Any showers will produce gusty and erratic outflow winds, potentially reaching 50kts in isolated areas with the strongest gusts. A cold front will continue to push through the area, transitioning any gusty southwesterly winds to gusty and northwesterly. VFR conditions will prevail. && .FIRE WEATHER...A weak cold frontal boundary pushes through the state of Utah through the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours today, bringing dry and breezy conditions ahead of the front. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are also expected along the front, generating pockets of strong winds in excess of 40 mph. Tomorrow, the trough associated with the cold front will exit the region and allow high pressure to build back into the Great Basin region. Under the influence of high pressure, surface temperatures will increase late in the week and through the weekend. Highs will reach around 5-10 degrees above climatological normals with the most significant warming anticipated across the northern half of Utah. Warmer and drier weather persists heading into early next week, however, an active weather pattern across the PacNW region could bring potential for another weak cold front during the first half of next week. Thereafter, high pressure will dominate the region and bring above average temperatures alongside mostly dry conditions. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Webber LONG TERM...ADeSmet AVIATION...Cunningham FIRE WEATHER...Webber For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity