684
FXUS65 KSLC 272135
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
335 PM MDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will continue to work its way into the
area through the first half of the week. A substantial warming
and drying trend will accompany this high, pushing temperatures 5
to 10 degrees above normal by Tuesday. A mostly dry cold front
will push through the region late Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)...The axis of the upper ridge
is starting to shift into Utah this afternoon. This axis will be
east of the area tomorrow, transitioning Utah into a southwesterly
flow pattern ahead of an approaching trough. Midlevel moisture has
increased across mainly central and portions of southern Utah
today. This, in combination with some weak instability (HREF mean
SBCAPE to 250 J/kg) has resulted in mainly high-based showers
developing over the central and southern mountains, which will
continue through the early evening hours. Isolated and brief
gusty microburst winds will be the greatest threat with these
showers through this evening, although so far the strongest gusts
have been under 40 mph.

With the southwesterly flow tomorrow, temperatures will continue
to warm another 4-8F, rising to 5-12F above climatological
normals. There is a small chance of SLC reaching 90F tomorrow (20%
per the NBM), but regardless, it will likely be the warmest day
so far this year. Midlevel moisture will continue to increase
tomorrow, spreading farther to the north. As such, expect
convection to increase a bit in coverage compared to today.
Showers will continue to be mostly high-based with a microburst
potential, but the chance of measurable rain will increase.


.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Wednesday), Issued 344 AM MDT...
Mid week, we`ll watch for influence from an upper level trough
and its associated cold front across the Intermountain West as it
grazes across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. As the forecast
stands this morning, modest impacts from this system are forecast
by way of rain and risk for thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon,
followed by cooler temperatures for Thursday. All of this is
forecast north of about Delta. We`ll continue to watch this front
this week to see just how it may change. Quite a mild weather
pattern is forecast for our region for the latter half of the
week, allowing for seasonal temperatures and dry conditions. The
weekends forecast looks to continue in this trend and in fact only
further increases temperatures as southwest flow takes over. We
are looking at widespread upper 80 degree temperatures by Sunday
with 90s in St. George and in southeast Utah.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...NW winds and dry conditions favored to persist
Monday, with direction shift back to SE expected between ~03-05Z
Tuesday. Some mid/high based VFR clouds then build in overnight.
Wind forecast less certain through the day Tuesday, with modest
consensus of NW switch ~19-21Z. That said, isolated high based
convection may yield gusty erratic outflow winds, especially if
anything drifts into the valley.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Remaining diurnal convection
will wane Monday evening into the overnight hours. Quiet conditions
with some VFR cloud cover then expected overnight into the day
Tuesday. Isolated to scattered high based convection then
anticipated to develop Tuesday afternoon along the high terrain,
drifting north and eastward thereafter. Gusty erratic outflow winds
will be the primary impact, but any stronger convection may also be
capable of lightning and briefly reduced conditions if moving
directly atop a terminal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Increased midlevel moisture has brought isolated to
widely scattered weak high-based showers to mainly central and
southern Utah this afternoon. This is expected to gradually wind
down this evening. The greatest threat with these showers will be
isolated gusty microburst winds and perhaps a lightning strike or
two. Moisture will continue to increase tomorrow, spreading
farther northward ahead of an approaching storm system. While
gusty microburst winds will continue to be a threat tomorrow, the
chance of measurable rain will increase, with locally wetting rain
possible in the higher terrain. Otherwise, southwesterly flow
will also increase tomorrow, accompanied by a continued warming
trend.

The storm system will push a cold front through the area Wednesday
through Wednesday night. Precipitation will be possible along the
boundary, with the greatest chance across northern Utah. This
front will bring cooler temperatures Wednesday through Friday
before drier air settles back into the area and a warming trend
returns for the weekend.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Cheng/NDeSmet/Warthen

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