671
FXUS65 KSLC 300858
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
258 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A cooler day is expected across the region in the wake
of a weak cold front. A gradual warming trend will continue into
Saturday. Another weak, mainly dry cold front will cross the area
Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Saturday)...A cooler day is on tap
across the CWA in the wake of a weak cold front. Temperatures will
average around 3 to 6 degrees cooler than Wednesday. Early morning
upper air and satellite analysis indicate the shortwave trough
associated with the previously mentioned front continues to pull
away from the region. A generally zonal flow has developed in its
wake across the CWA.

Across southern Utah, sufficient mid-level moisture remains in
place for isolated, high-based convection, especially across
southeastern portions of the forecast area this afternoon and
evening. Expect the main threat to continue to be gusty microburst
winds given the dry subcloud environment. Several CAMS show this
signature, with an area of strong, gusty winds resulting from
isolated convection across the area.

Quasi-zonal flow will continue into Friday, with isolated high-
based convection expected across the higher terrain of Utah and
adjacent valleys. The microburst threat will persist.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Saturday)...Our weekend forecast is looking
generally unremarkable weather wise but that stated there is the
slightest of potentials for rain in our weekend forecast. Looking
at the overall weather pattern, we note a broad upper trough to
our west Saturday which is forecast to track eastward and bring a
mostly dry cool front through northern Utah and southwest Wyoming.
This front is quite weak. But yet, it will bring some slightly
cooler temperatures Sunday in its wake as well as a slight chance
for precipitation.

For the start of next week, high pressure is forecast to build back
into the region and allow for temperatures to climb once more.
Wouldn`t discount just how warm Monday could potentially get. While
record breaking temperatures seem unlikely (about a 10% chance to
reach the 97 degree record at the SLC airport), if some of the
European ensemble members come true temperatures will be close!
Monday will probably feel like a tease toward warmer temperatures
because by the afternoon or evening, yet another trough and weak
cool front is forecast to head toward the region. While expected to
mostly impact areas to our north, portions of northern Utah just
might just clipped by it. As a result, another chance for rain
showers is forecast. And because this is another frontal passage,
cooler temperatures will follow for Tuesday. This really will be a
roller coaster of temperature swings until Wednesday across the
north.

The heat is on by Wednesday as a strong high pressure area settles
over the Great Basin. And it doesn`t leave the region through the
rest of the week. Wednesday is looking to be a triple digit day
across much of Washington County in southwest Utah, where a 50 to
70% chance to exceed 100 degrees exists. These chances only increase
headed into Thursday, so as the forecast stands now, look for
Thursday to be the hottest day out of the week. Additionally, Glen
Canyon/Lake Powell is looking to reach the 100 degree mark Thursday
as well with around a 70% chance near Big Water and Bullfrog. As for
the rest of Utah, forecast highs Thursday are looking to generally
be into the 90s but remain below triple digits.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Northerly winds and VFR conditions are forecast
this morning behind the passage of a cold front yesterday. Look for
these conditions throughout the day before winds shift southeasterly
this evening at light speeds.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are forecast
across the region today with either clear skies or high based clouds
forecast. This afternoon, gusty northwest to west winds around 20
kts are forecast to develop across BCE and EVW with otherwise light
conditions prevailing.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A cooler day is expected across the region today,
with an uptick in humidities across most locations. Sufficient
mid-level moisture remains in place for isolated high-based
convection across portions of southern Utah this afternoon and
evening. Isolated high-based convection will be more widespread
area-wise Friday, including the higher terrain of Utah and
adjacent valleys. By Saturday, the highest threat of high-based
convection will be across the higher terrain of northern and
central Utah. All three days, high-based convection will be
capable of gusty and erratic microburst winds. Wetting rains are
unlikely with this activity.

Temperatures will be on the uptick through Saturday, with a
relative decrease in minimum humidity each day in most locations.
A mostly dry cold front will cross the region Sunday...though
cooling with this front will be limited to 3 to 6 degrees or so
across mainly northern and central Utah. Minimum humidities may
briefly rise across northern Utah Sunday...but a quick return to
very dry conditions is expected by Monday.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Kruse/NDeSmet

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http://weather.gov/saltlakecity