700
FXUS65 KSLC 281004
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
404 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will be in place today bringing high
temperatures of 5F to 10F above normal. A cold front Wednesday
will bring a few showers and thunderstorms with a gusty wind
threat. Temperatures will cool back down to around normal by
Thursday behind the front. Another warming trend will begin in
earnest by early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Thursday)...Early Tuesday morning
analysis products depicted a mid-level ridge axis centered over
eastern Utah while an area of low pressure was approaching the
British Colombian coastline. The ridge will move off to the east
today while the low approaches the Washington coast. As a result,
modest deep-layer SW flow will overspread Utah and SW Wyoming,
promoting a continued warming trend (highs 5F to 10F above normal)
while also opening the door to modest mid-level moist advection.
Just enough moisture will be introduced to foster isolated shower
and thunderstorm development this afternoon, mainly over high
terrain areas of northern and central Utah. Modest deep-layer
shear development by late afternoon and early evening could
support updrafts that can briefly survive the trek off of the
terrain. Main hazards with this activity will be isolated
lightning and gusty winds in the 35-45 mph range. Convective
activity will be more robust and widespread on Wednesday,
however.

On Wendesday, models are in good agreement with their depictions
of the above-mentioned cold front moving across northern Utah and
SW Wyoming during the afternoon, before settling across central
Utah during the evening and overnight hours before diminishing.
Thanks to continued mid-level moisture advection and large-scale
ascent associated with the front, scattered showers with isolated
thunderstorms will break out across northern Utah during the late
morning and afternoon hours, with additional convective initiation
gradually trending southward into central Utah during the
evening. Ensemble mean SBCAPE values reach 1000J/Kg during the
late afternoon and early evening, with superimposed deep-layer
shear values in the 30-40kt range. These ingredients suggests the
environment will be supportive of organized updrafts and
propagating cold pools. Available ingredients are the best we`ve
seen so far in what`s otherwise been a relatively quiet Spring in
terms of convective activity. Main threats will once again be
lightning and gusty outflow winds, with the coverage and strength
of winds much greater than Tuesday, with numerous gusts in the
45-55 mph range accompanying many of the showers and storms,
thanks to a dry sub-cloud environment and increasing kinematics
aloft with the approaching frontal boundary. HREF max wind gust
plots exceed 58 mph across portions of central Utah during the
late afternoon and early evening hours (with a 10% probability
contour appearing), focused between Provo and Cove Fort.
Convection will gradually wane during the evening hours, but
enough support owing to the presence of the cold front will be in
place to support a few showers through the night, particularly
across northern and central Utah.

.LONG TERM After 12Z/6AM Thursday)...Thursday will begin a
modest temperature drop in the wake of a cold front Wednesday. But
for the end of May, temperatures are forecast to be very seasonal
and very pleasant. The weather pattern headed into and through the
weekend look to bring rather mild conditions to the region. Warming
temperatures are forecast as southwest flow arrives by Saturday with
high temperatures near the triple digit marker in St. George and in
southeast Utah. High pressure is not expected to leave the region
anytime in this long term forecast. In fact, there`s little variance
in ensemble models until next week, where the question becomes, just
how high will temperatures climb with a building ridge?

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Light southeast winds are forecast to continue
this morning. VFR conditions expected through the period with a less
than 10 percent chance for a thunderstorm to impact the terminal
this afternoon. They will, however, be possible nearby, leading to
potential for gusty outflow winds.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...A few rain showers and
thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and evening which may
impact terminals with brief gusty winds and lightning. Activity is
expected to diminish after sunset. Outside of this, light diurnal
wind variations are forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warm, dry conditions will be in place today with
temperatures around 10F above normal. Increasing mid-level moisture
ahead of an approaching cold front will promote isolated high-based
showers and storms across northern and central Utah`s high terrain
areas this afternoon and evening. On Wednesday, the cold front
will move through northern Utah during the afternoon, before
dropping into central Utah by Wednesday evening. The front will
promote the development of high-based showers and storms across
northern and central Utah, with the greatest coverage during the
afternoon and evening hours. Showers and storms will be capable of
strong, gusty and erratic outflow winds. Temperatures will cool
10-15F across northern and central Utah behind the front on
Tuesday. As we get into the weekend, warm, dry conditions will
return to the state with temperatures increasing to near 10F above
normal once again. Through the next week, little change is
expected across southern Utah, with temperatures remaining 5-10F
above normal along with a continuation of dry conditions
accompanied by poor overnight recovery.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

ADeSmet/NDeSmet

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Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity