Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
962 FXUS66 KSTO 252039 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 139 PM PDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .Synopsis... There are near normal temperatures today but we are forecasting a late week warm up to above normal temperatures by Friday. These high temperatures, along with dry conditions, are expected to last through the weekend and into next week. && .Discussion... A few scattered high clouds are visible over interior NorCal this afternoon on GOES West satellite imagery, as we experience temperatures about 10 to 20 degrees cooler than this same time yesterday. Breezy winds are expected this afternoon and evening, as troughing progresses west over interior NorCal. Cooler, more normal temperatures are expected again tomorrow before high temperatures ramp back up again Friday, due to ridging over the Four Corners area increasing heights over interior NorCal. This will bring the return of large areas of Moderate HeatRisk on Friday, with patchier spots of Moderate HeatRisk on Saturday. Temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than normal for the time of year, with the NBM predicting a 60 to 90% probability of temperatures over 95 degrees in the Valley on Friday. Saturday will be a couple of degrees cooler but still quite warm climatologically. Conditions will also begin to dry out with daytime and overnight humidities declining fairly sharply between Thursday and Friday. && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)... After a brief interlude with a short wave trough on Sunday morning, heights will trend back up on Sunday afternoon and into Tuesday as ridging progresses back over the area. This will overall keep temperatures on Sunday above normal. Monday sees some slight potential for Elevated Fire Weather Concerns due to increased northerly winds and very dry conditions, though ensembles show some disagreement between solutions as to how gusty winds will actually get at this point. Regardless, temperatures return to well above normal on Monday, with widespread Moderate HeatRisk expected on both Monday and Tuesday in the Valley and foothills, and some small local areas of Major HeatRisk in the foothills as well. Conditions cool slightly on Wednesday, though temperatures remain above normal, as broad troughing to the north lowers heights across interior NorCal. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hrs except for potential of fog in the Delta and Sacramento areas between 13Z and 17Z Thursday. Surface wind mainly at or below 12 kts except in the vicinity of the Delta, southwestern surface wind 15-25 kts. Potential wind gusts up to 20 kts across the Valley until around 00Z Thursday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$