390
FXUS62 KTAE 231440
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1040 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1038 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

No major changes were made to the forecast, as it looks to remain
on track.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 427 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

A turn to light low-level southerly and southwesterly flow will
moisten the air mass just enough for isolated pop-up showers and
thunderstorms over inland areas through Saturday. A strong upper
ridge on Sunday will suppress any convection on that day.
Meanwhile, a slow warming trend through Sunday, plus the infusion
of muggy dewpoints above 70, will allow the heat index to reach
100 in spots on Saturday and Sunday. A front will drag through the
Southeast States on Monday and Tuesday, increasing chance for
strong thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 427 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

A strong 500 mb ridge axis will extend today from the southwest
Gulf to northeast Florida. This will generally suppress convective
development. However, a turn to light low-level southerly flow
today will locally enhance lift in the terrain-favored area of
seabreeze convergence well north of Apalachicola. Precipitable
Water (PW) values will be flirting with the 1.5-inch value, which
is a loose threshold for supporting deep, moist convection. So
isolated pop-up showers and thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon, with the gridded forecast showing a bullseye from
Marianna to Blakely.

Otherwise, the turn to southerly flow will favor expanding the
patchy fog forecast on Friday morning to cover much of the
forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 427 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Little sensible change is expected on Friday and Saturday.

The 500 mb ridge axis will retreat back to the southwest Gulf on
Friday night, with mid-level flow becoming northwesterly. Modest
mid-level drying will push PW values down to just below 1.5
inches, which will hold back afternoon convection to isolated
coverage over inland areas at the most.

Low-level south and southwest winds off the Gulf will moisten
dewpoints above 70F this weekend well inland. This will push the
heat index at an increasing number of locations to near 100F on
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 427 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

The 500 mb high over the Southwest Gulf will rebound strongly
across the northeast Gulf on Sunday, with 500 mb heights of 5900+
meters expected over our FL counties. This will even more
effectively suppress any attempts at convective development.
Strong late May sunshine and the warming aloft will bring the
hottest temperatures of this stretch on Sunday afternoon, with
90-95 expected over inland areas. Dewpoints of 70-75F will again
push heat index values into the 95-100F range.

Increasing thunder chances are in the forecast for Monday and
Tuesday. The tail end of a low-amplitude and progressive upper
trough will brush by the forecast area around Tuesday. This will
push a late season cold front from Mississippi across Alabama and
Georgia. Proximity of the front will bring an increased chance of
storms. Timing is problematic at this point, with some guidance
bringing the highest thunder chances across on Monday, while a
larger collection of guidance peaks thunder chances on Tuesday.
Regardless, we will be looking at moderate to possibly strong
convective instability, PW values of 1.5-1.7 inches representing
deeper surface-based moisture, and bulk shear of 30-40 knots.
This combination of parameters favors a few strong multi-cell
clusters, which mainly come with gusty winds. Isolated severe
storms would be possible.

By Wednesday, the front will have limped south into the Gulf, and
low-mid level northwest-northerly flow will dry out and stabilize the
air mass. The drier air mass will bring a return of pleasantly
cool morning lows in the 60s around the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

IFR in fog at ECP should lift ~13Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions
today with a SCT deck of fair weather cumulus developing. Toward
the latter portion of the TAF period late tonight, there is the
potential for fog at all TAF sites, but it`s too early to pin
down more specifics given the spatial and temporal uncertainty.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 427 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

A broad area of high pressure from the Bahamas to the southeast
Gulf will bring a turn to gentle southerly and southwesterly
breezes over the waters today, which will then last through
Sunday. Southwest breezes will increase on Monday and become
moderate, in advance of a cold front moving from Mississippi into
Alabama and Georgia. South of that front, thunderstorm coverage
will start to increase over the waters around Monday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 427 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Seasonably moderate fire weather conditions will prevail through
Saturday. Near normal temperatures are forecast, while south to
southwest winds off the Gulf will add a little extra mugginess
and moisture to the air mass this weekend. Good dispersion values
are expected over inland districts each afternoon through at
least Saturday, thanks to a seasonably deep mixed layer and light
to moderate transport winds. Isolated pop-up thunderstorms are
possible over inland areas each afternoon. An increasing coverage
of thunderstorms will come on Monday and Tuesday, when some storms
could be strong.

Patchy fog is possible over the Florida Panhandle and Lower
Alabama districts through sunrise this morning. On Friday
morning, patchy fog will expand into more of the Florida Big Bend,
Alabama Wiregrass, and Southwest Georgia districts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 427 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

In the absence of rain since Sunday to recharge river headwaters,
flood flows from heavy rains on the 17th and 18th are now routing
into lower portions of the Choctawhatchee, Ochlockonee, Aucilla,
and Withlacoochee Rivers. The only rivers expecting sustained
rises in the days ahead will be the Florida reach of the
Withlacoochee, and the Suwannee.

Rainfall over the next 7 days will generally remain well under 1
inch, which is hydrologically insignificant.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   91  68  91  71 /  10   0  10   0
Panama City   86  72  85  74 /  10  10  10  10
Dothan        89  68  88  72 /  20   0  20  10
Albany        89  68  89  70 /  20   0  10  10
Valdosta      92  69  92  71 /  20   0  10   0
Cross City    91  68  91  68 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  83  72  84  74 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner