071
FXUS62 KTAE 231849
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
249 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...


.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 152 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

A couple of showers and thunderstorms remain possible late this
afternoon across southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.
Otherwise, expect temperatures to fall into the upper 60s to lower
70s tonight as any showers/storms dissipate. A bit of fog is
possible Friday morning before temperatures climb into the upper 80s
to lower 90s around the region in the afternoon. A few showers and
storms are possible along the sea breeze Friday afternoon.

The H5 ridge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico will nudge
westward a bit, opening the door for west to northwesterly mid-level
flow. Precipitable water values (PWATs) generally between 1.3" to
1.5" should help weaken any thunderstorm complexes that are forecast
to move through the southeast over the next 24 hours. That said,
there is the potential for an isolated shower or two early Friday
morning. The lower PWATs should also keep any showers and
thunderstorms isolated in nature Friday afternoon with the best
chance across southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 152 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Mid to upper level ridging centered over central Mexico will
continue to impose northwest flow across the mid and upper levels
of the atmosphere across the region. Fortunately at this time,
most Mesoscale convective Systems that are forecast to propagate
eastward along the strong westerly flow of the subtropical jet
will remain north of the region across northern Mississippi,
Alabama, and Georgia over the long holiday weekend. There is a
slightly higher chance on Saturday that an outflow boundary from
one of these MCS dives south into SE Alabama and SW Georgia early
Saturday morning, and could act as a trigger for afternoon
thunderstorm development. Given higher than normal DCAPE values
approaching 1000 J/Kg, a few of these storms could produce strong
to near severe wind gusts. Overall, outside of these low rain
chances, temperatures will be warm Saturday, with highs climbing
into the low to mid 90s areawide. Lows Saturday morning will
generally remain in the low 70s.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 152 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Mid and upper level ridging will continue to remain in place
across the region through Sunday as ridge centered over north
central Mexico nudges slightly further east into the Gulf of
Mexico. This will likely lead to the weeks warmest temperatures,
with highs climbing into low to mid 90s for most. These
temperatures combined with dewpoints near 70 degrees areawide will
lead to the highest heat indices of the year thus far. Folks
enjoying outside activities during the holiday weekend should
prepare accordingly for the heat across the region.

A mid and upper level trough looks to dig south into the eastern
conus starting Tuesday and Wednesday. This will lead to a late
season cold front pushing through the region Tuesday and
Wednesday. The east-west orientated quasi-stationary front as it
passes the area will lead to increased chances for thunderstorms
developing during the afternoon hours of Tuesday through
Wednesday, with Tuesday afternoon having the best chances
areawide. WMSI values look to be the highest on Tuesday as both
instability and shear look to be at their highest values across
the region. This will likely lead to mutli-cellular clusters
developing across the region possibly leading to isolated strong
to severe winds. By Wednesday, the front looks to be draped across
the Florida Big Bend, which could trigger afternoon thunderstorms
across this region, primarily south of I-10 where dewpoints look
to remain at their highest.

In the wake of the cold front, highs will return into the upper
80s to low 90s areawide, and lows will fall into the mid to upper
60s.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 152 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail through much of
the TAF period. There is the potential for a bit of fog in and
around KTLH and KECP Friday morning, which could lead to IFR to
LIFR conditions. Winds will generally be light to moderate out of
the south to southwest.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 152 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

High pressure east of the Bahamas will continue to impose a
southerly to southwesterly winds across all marine zones through
the holiday weekend, with winds generally remaining around 5-10
knots. Southwesterly winds could increase to 10-15 knots by
Monday as the upper level trough begins to slowly eject into the
upper Mississippi valley; however, they will likely remain on the
low end of those values. Southwesterly winds look to remain as the
cold front pushes into the region Tuesday, but look to transition
to northerly by Wednesday morning.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 152 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Warmer than normal temperatures are expected through the Memorial
Day weekend with highs in the lower to middle 90s. Surface winds
will generally be out of the south to southwest. Increased surface
moisture will push heat indices into the upper 90s to near 100 at
times in the middle of the afternoon. Good dispersions are expected
over inland districts each afternoon through at least Sunday thanks
to a seasonably deep mixed layer and light to moderate transport
winds. Isolated pop-up showers and storms are possible over inland
areas each afternoon through Sunday. Better shower and thunderstorm
chances arrive Monday afternoon into Tuesday.

Patchy to areas of fog are possible over much of the region, with
the best chance over the Florida Panhandle and southeastern
Alabama.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 152 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Portions of the Withlacoochee, Ochlockonee, and Choctawhatchee
river basins continue to remain in minor flood as they drain from
last weeks storms. With the Withlacoochee slowly draining into the
Suwanee, we could see some rises reaching minor flooding on
portions of the Suwanee in the coming week. Overall, outside of
the possible points along the Suwanee reaching flood in the next
week, no other river basins are expected to reach flood stage this
week.

Widespread rainfall totals over the next 7 days will generally
remain around 0.5 inches or less, with portions of SE Alabama
potentially reaching 1 inch of QPF in the next week. This amount
of rainfall is hydrologically insignificant, and will not lead to
additional riverine flooding concerns.





&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   69  91  72  93 /   0  10   0  20
Panama City   72  84  74  87 /   0  10  10  10
Dothan        69  89  72  91 /   0  20  10  20
Albany        70  89  71  90 /   0  10  10  30
Valdosta      69  91  71  93 /   0  10  10  30
Cross City    68  91  69  90 /   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  73  84  74  86 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Reese
SHORT TERM...Bunker
LONG TERM....Bunker
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Bunker
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Bunker