Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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406 FXUS62 KTAE 292339 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 739 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Surface high pressure continues to influence our weather today through tomorrow. PoPs remain low, while we can expect our temperatures to be warm in the low/mid-90s along and south of I-10, and in the upper 80s to the north. Overnight lows will be in the mid- upper 60s and near 70 along the immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Friday night) Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Surface high pressure will continue to remain in place to wrap up the remainder of the work week, which will ultimately keep PoP chances low to near zero across the area. This is predominantly due to a positively tilted trough digging through Virginia and North Carolina Thursday night into Friday leading to northwest flow aloft and dry air in place across the region. PWATs will generally remain around 1.2 inches or less, which is too low to get shower or thunderstorm activity along the seabreeze this time of year unless there is some mid/upper level forcing present across the region. Overall, high temperatures will be warm in the upper 80s to low 90s across the region. Lows Friday morning will be in the mid to upper 60s for interior locations, and in the low 70s for coastal locations. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 By Saturday, the aforementioned mid and upper level trough across Virginia and North Carolina is expected to eject eastward towards Bermuda. This will introduce upper level ridging back into the eastern Conus, with a predominantly benign flow pattern aloft. During this time, surface high pressure is also expected to settle just east of Florida and Georgia. This will lead to easterly flow across the region, along with an injection of higher PWATs back into the area. PWATs will generally surge between 1.5-1.75 inches across the area, which will lead to seasonal PoP values through the weekend and into the early work week. The best rain chances will continue to remain west of the Chatahoochee and Apalachicola river basins. Overall, slight mid-level vorticity perturbations in the mean flow will be the determining factor on locations and QPF totals for the area. Overall, the areas above will generally see around 1 inch of widespread rainfall in the next 7 days; however, locally higher totals can`t be ruled out. Expect high temperatures to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s through the weekend and early portion of the work week before another increase into the mid 90s during the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 739 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 VFR conditions will continue at all sites with no operational impacts expected. KECP will undergo a wind shift around 18z as the seabreeze propagates north. && .MARINE... Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Overall tranquil boating conditions are expected the next several days to end the work week, with surface high pressure generally remaining stationary over the region. By Friday evening into Saturday morning, surface high pressure is expected to slide off the east coast of Florida, which will impose easterly winds across the marine zones. This will lead to nocturnal surges starting late Friday night into Saturday morning, and is expected to continue through the weekend. Winds will reach small craft exercise caution levels during these nocturnal surges. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Dry conditions are expected to continue for the rest of the week, with increasing rain chances occuring towards the weekend. High mixing heights and with light transport winds can be expected throughout the forecasting region. Dispersions will be high in inland portions of the FL Big Bend and along the I-75 corridor in GA. Coastal regions along the Gulf will have relatively lower dispersions for the rest of the week. Going into the weekend, FL, GA, and AL counties will see some high dispersions. That being said, relative humidity values are expected to stay above critical values, so there are no concerns for fire weather at this time. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 254 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Recent rains from this past weekend are causing notable rises on the Withlacoochee River. The river point at Skipper Bridge Road should crest just below Minor flooding; however, it could be close in the next day or two. Outside of these rises on the Withlacoochee possibly reaching Minor flooding, there are no other hydrological concerns at this time. Overall forecast rainfall in the next 7 days will predominantly west of the Chatahoochee and Apalachicola rivers, where around an inch of widespread rainfall is expected. For areas east of these aforementioned river basins, widespread rainfall totals are expected to be minimal. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 69 93 69 92 / 0 0 0 10 Panama City 72 91 71 91 / 0 10 0 10 Dothan 68 88 67 88 / 0 10 0 10 Albany 65 87 65 88 / 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 66 89 67 90 / 0 0 0 10 Cross City 66 94 67 93 / 0 0 0 20 Apalachicola 74 87 74 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT Thursday for FLZ108. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Montgomery SHORT TERM...Bunker LONG TERM....Bunker AVIATION...Worster MARINE...Bunker FIRE WEATHER...Brennan HYDROLOGY...Bunker