Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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439 FXUS62 KTAE 291029 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 629 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Dry conditions and light northerly winds are expected across the area today in the wake of a weak cold front. Temperatures are forecast to be slightly cooler as a result of the front, with the biggest difference expected in the low temperatures thanks to the drier air. Highs are forecast to range from the upper 80s to mid 90s, with lows tonight in the mid 60s to near 70. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 The end of the week will generally be characterized by easterly to northeasterly winds and temperatures ranging from the middle to upper 80s across Georgia and Alabama to the lower to middle 90s in Florida. Overnight lows will fall into the middle to upper 60s, or near normal for this time of year. Rain and thunderstorm chances increase slightly on Friday. An H5 trough moving through the Great Lakes and Northeast will move off the Eastern Seaboard on Friday. This keeps much of the region in northwesterly flow through the period; a few perturbations moving along the northwesterly flow could bring a round or two of showers and thunderstorms through the Deep South Thursday into Friday. However, any showers and storms should weaken as they run into drier air overhead on Thursday. The atmosphere moistens up a skoosh Friday with precipitable water values (PWATs) increasing to 1.3" to 1.5"; this opens the door for a 20 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms for much of the region on Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 The beginning of June has the potential to be fairly active around the Southeast. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe, are possible each afternoon through the period. Daytime highs are forecast to be in the upper 80s to middle 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A shortwave ridge at H5 will be passing overhead early Saturday morning. Several H5 shortwaves will then follow it starting Saturday afternoon and lasting into early next week. This causes rain and thunderstorm chances to increase each afternoon. Some of the storms may be strong to severe with damaging winds and hail the primary concerns. There remains a large degree of uncertainty at this lead time as to whether any organized line of storms may impact the region, but the potential is there both Saturday and/or Sunday. Due to some of this uncertainty, have elected to cap storm chances at 40 percent through the weekend. Guidance suggests general troughiness hanging out over the Southeast early next week. This will lead to the possibility of isolated to scattered showers and storms each afternoon next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Light and variable winds are expected through the week as high pressure remains in control over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The seabreeze will shift winds for our nearshore waters during the afternoon and evening hours. Winds turn more easterly to southeasterly this weekend and increase to near cautionary conditions due to easterly wind surges at night. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase this weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Dry conditions are expected for the next couple of days before rain chances begin to increase again Friday into the weekend. A combination of high mixing heights and breezy transport winds will likely lead to high dispersions for the next few afternoons, with the highest dispersions expected this afternoon. Although dry, relative humidity values should remain above critical thresholds. Otherwise there are no fire weather concerns. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Recent rains have caused a few rivers and creeks to rise, notably the Kinchafoonee and Muckalee Creeks and the Withlacoochee River. However, only the Withlacoochee River at Valdosta continues to rise through Action Stage and may briefly go into Minor Flood Stage later today or tomorrow. Elsewhere, the Suwannee River continues to run in Action Stage along many points on the river; recent rains may lead to the Suwannee remaining in Action Stage for longer. Rain chances increase this weekend and may produce locally heavy rainfall. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 93 69 93 69 / 0 0 10 0 Panama City 93 72 90 72 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 90 68 88 67 / 10 0 10 10 Albany 90 66 87 66 / 0 0 10 10 Valdosta 90 66 90 68 / 0 0 10 10 Cross City 95 66 94 69 / 0 0 10 0 Apalachicola 90 73 87 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Merrifield SHORT TERM...Reese LONG TERM....Reese AVIATION...Merrifield MARINE...Reese FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield HYDROLOGY...Reese