576
FXUS62 KTAE 290508
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
108 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Large-scale troughing shifts off to the east gradually while
ridging builds over the Plains. Meanwhile, we`re still embedded
in northwesterly flow aloft, though now behind a cold front,
meaning drier air is overtaking the area. We`ll have to watch
tomorrow as there are some weak perturbations in the northwesterly
flow still to come our way, and hi-res guidance still hints at
some low-end potential that the remnants of an MCS could nudge
their way into our area late tomorrow afternoon. However,
confidence is not high enough to include any rain chances greater
than 10% at this time, especially given the dry air in place.

Otherwise, lows will be "cooler" tonight, settling in the mid to
upper 60s. Highs will once again be hot tomorrow in the lower to
middle 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

During the short term, we will be along the southern edge of a
surface high, centered over the Great Lakes region, with an upper
level ridge to our west, while we`re on the southern edge of an
upper level trough. We will have northeasterly/easterly flow aside
from the changes from the seabreeze along and south of I-10
during the afternoon hours. A passing shortwave may ride along the
trough and bring a minimal chance for showers and thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon. PoPs for Thursday are about 10% and less.
Temperatures for the short term start with morning lows in the
upper 60s, and afternoon highs in the low to mid-90s, and upper
80s for areas north of I-10.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Throughout the long term, multiple shortwaves will pass over the
region, providing chances for showers and thunderstorms for the
weekend. Some storms may have the potential to be strong or severe
with damaging winds and hail being the main concerns. However,
storm modes are uncertain at the moment because each system will
be dependent on the behavior of the one before it. Due to this,
PoPs have been capped at 40% for Saturday and Sunday, with lower
PoPs on Friday and Monday. Temperatures for the long term will
have highs in the upper 80s to low/mid-90s to start the weekend,
and with the potential rain and cloud cover, afternoon highs will
be in the upper 80s for the weekend, then warming back to the low
90s for the start of the work week. Overnight lows will hold
steady in the upper 60s inland and to around 70 along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Winds will be light and variable heading into the weekend. The
seabreeze will shift winds for our nearshore waters during the
afternoon and evening hours. By this weekend, winds will shift to
be more easterly/southeasterly with an increase to cautionary
levels during the overnight hours, which is common with easterly
flow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

High dispersions are expected in areas along the I-75 corridor
and the Southeast Big Bend for Wednesday afternoon. For Thursday
and Friday afternoons, high dispersions will be more patchy but,
generally in the western Big Bend. Mixing heights will be range
from 5000 to 7000 feet across the districts each afternoon.
Transport winds will be light and northerly on Wednesday and
becoming northeasterly for Thursday and Friday. Transport winds
along the coast will be more variable due to the afternoon
seabreeze. MinRH will be in the upper 20s% on Wednesday with slow
moisture return for the rest of the period reaching around 40-50%
RH by Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

With the recent rainfall, area rivers may rise over the next
couple of days. However, the only river that could reach flood
stage will be the lower Suwannee River in the next several days.
We will continue to monitor in case of the need to issue flood
warnings. Otherwise, possible rainfall through the period is not
expected to cause any widespread flooding, but some
showers/thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   93  70  92  69 /   0   0  10  10
Panama City   91  73  90  72 /   0   0  10  10
Dothan        91  69  88  68 /  10   0  10  10
Albany        90  67  86  67 /  10   0  10  10
Valdosta      91  69  90  69 /   0   0  10  10
Cross City    93  67  94  68 /   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  89  74  87  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery