Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
565 FXUS62 KTBW 281915 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 315 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 The weakening frontal boundary continues to drift south into north Florida with some deeper moisture south of it leading to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon. However, with the westerly flow in place this convection will continue to move east across the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula, with the coastal counties remaining mostly dry. This boundary will settle across the region Wednesday with high pressure to the north helping to bring some drier air back into the area. This drier air along with the northwest flow will keep any rain chance confined to the southern interior and southwest Florida with near record high temperatures and dry weather elsewhere. The rather hot and dry weather will continue Thursday with the flow becoming more northeasterly. The rain chances will remain only across the southern interior and southwest Florida. For Friday a reinforcing front will move south into north Florida with deeper moisture setting up across the area. This along with an east to southeast flow should favor scattered mainly afternoon and evening convection across West Central and Southwest Florida. The boundary will move through the area as high pressure moves across the eastern U.S. and out into the Atlantic Ocean over the weekend setting up an increased east to northeast flow. Should still be enough moisture for isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening convection each day into early next week with temperatures closer to normal. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move east away from the TAF sites this afternoon with VFR conditions prevailing through tonight. Westerly winds around 10 knots with some higher gusts this afternoon will diminish and become light northwest later this evening and overnight && .MARINE... Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 A weak frontal boundary will stall out over the waters tonight with some drier air moving for Wednesday and Thursday. Late in the week through the weekend high pressure will build south pushing the front further south and setting up an increased east to northeast flow with better chances for showers and thunderstorms returning. Winds and seas will remain below headline criteria outside of thunderstorm activity. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 A frontal boundary will stall out across the region later today and tonight, with showers and a few thunderstorms continuing over the interior into early this evening. Drier air will move in for Wednesday and Thursday, with critically low relative humidity values expected over inland areas, but wind speeds will remain less than 15 mph so Red Flag conditions are expected. Dispersion values will be rather high the next few afternoons. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 95 77 96 / 0 0 0 10 FMY 77 95 74 97 / 0 20 10 20 GIF 74 97 71 97 / 10 10 0 10 SRQ 77 94 74 93 / 0 0 0 10 BKV 70 96 66 98 / 0 0 0 10 SPG 81 94 79 95 / 0 0 0 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 8 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Close