305
FXUS62 KTBW 190057
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
857 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 833 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Storms from earlier this afternoon were not very impressive at
least for our CWA, but strengthen as they moved east into our
neighboring offices` area. On the other hand, another round of
showers and isolated thunderstorms is possible on Sunday as upper
level disturbance ans associated cold front attempt to move
across the Peninsula. There is lot of uncertainty with the timing,
but at this time, the highest chances should be mid morning and
into the afternoon. The main concerns with these would be strong
winds and some hail. In terms of temperatures, highs will range
from the mid 8s to low 90s depending on where the showers develop.

Otherwise, no major changes were made to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 737 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated for the next several hours before
frontal boundary increases chances of showers and isolated storms
early on Sunday. Models are not in great agreement in terms of
timing, but most bring the aforementioned boundary across the
peninsula through Sunday. A few CAMs bring a rounds of few
showers ahead of the front around 09Z hence why a line was added
to most terminals. Thereafter, uncertainty increases and it is
difficult to pin point where exactly the showers will develop.
Going into the afternoon, and as the system gets closer chances
for isolated thunderstorms increases, especially north of the I-4
corridor. This potential is now reflected on the TAFs. Overall, a
challenging forecast, but conditions should improve through the
evening hours as the boundary exits the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  86  75  89 /  40  70  30  30
FMY  78  92  76  91 /  30  60  40  60
GIF  75  88  72  91 /  40  70  30  40
SRQ  77  88  75  90 /  30  70  30  30
BKV  71  87  68  90 /  60  70  20  30
SPG  79  86  78  88 /  40  70  30  30

&&


.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Delerme
DECISION SUPPORT...ADavis