800
FXUS62 KTBW 191242
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
842 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Broken band of weak showers over the I-4 corridor early this
morning to slowly sag Sward as E Gulf convection is expected to
move ashore through the afternoon hours. Early look at 12Z
sounding showing low level inversion that is keeping the activity
weak, but fcst CAPE values increase significantly with diurnal
heating to keep the mention of strong to severe storms possible
especially for well interior areas especially if E Coast
seabreeze moves inland.

Another day of long period swell energy from the Yucatan Channel
that is again producing 2-3 ft breaking waves and strong rip currents
locally especially at SW facing beaches. Beach goes need to be
aware this threat is real and there was a fatal drowning yesterday
in Manatee County.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
BKN band of SHRA to move over the region this morning/afternoon
with a slight chance of TSRA at terminals this afternoon with
brief and localized MVFR cigs/vsbys thru around 21Z then improving
trend expected this evening/tonight. SW-W winds occasionally
gusty today then shift NW and weaken tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 515 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Deep layer W-SW flow over the peninsula this morning south of a
trough aloft extending from the Mid-Atlantic SW to the N Gulf
Coast and an attendant frontal boundary draped across the SE U.S.
into the FL panhandle. The trough will very slowly progress E into
the Atlantic over the next few days, with the surface frontal
boundary working its way south across the peninsula today and
Monday before clearing the state to the south on Tuesday. Ridging
aloft builds over the area around mid week with surface ridging
building along the E Seaboard before a few shortwaves push E
across the TN/OH Valley regions late week and over the weekend,
eroding the ridge while the surface ridge weakens slightly and
shifts a bit E into the Atlantic.

For today expect an increase in showers and storms with the front
pushing across the area, initially across Nature Coast locations
this morning before spreading into central and eventually southern
areas late morning through afternoon. Given the persistent W-SW
flow expect greatest concentration of convection over the interior
and E FL, however a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled
out across W FL as moderate-strong instability this afternoon
coupled with sufficient shear will be supportive of stronger
convection ahead of the boundary. SPC has highlighted the all of
the CWA under a Marginal Risk with damaging wind and hail as the
primary threats, with a Slight Risk over the interior covering
parts of eastern Polk and Highlands counties for an increased risk
of large hail. Activity should gradually wind down this evening as
the front continues south, however with moisture lingering over
the area and slow progression of the trough aloft PoPs will
remain in the 30-40 percent range through Mon-Tue, with highest
chances over the interior during the afternoons. The remainder of
the week will feature PoPs around 20 percent or less as drier
conditions will be likely with ridging over the area. Temps also
warm during the latter half of the week as well, into the low-mid
90s for areas away from the immediate coast, after having been in
the upper 80s-lower 90s today through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 515 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

A frontal boundary slowly moving across the E Gulf today will
bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the
waters. Weak high pressure gradually builds into the region by mid
week with winds and seas slowly subsiding.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 515 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

A front will move over the state with showers and thunderstorms
for most areas today, followed by lingering rain chances on Monday
and Tuesday mainly focused toward interior locations during the
afternoons. High pressure and drier air will filter into the area
mid to late week with warming temps.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  76  89  73 /  60  20  20  10
FMY  91  76  90  73 /  60  50  40  20
GIF  89  72  90  70 /  60  30  40  10
SRQ  89  75  89  72 /  60  30  20  10
BKV  88  69  89  65 /  50  20  30  10
SPG  86  78  88  76 /  60  20  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

RJD