Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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191 FXUS62 KTBW 211203 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 803 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 In the upper levels, a broad trough axis extending from the western Atlantic into Florida today will slowly push east through the weekend as a strong ridge over Texas slides east into the Gulf of Mexico and across Florida by early next week. At the surface, high pressure to the north of Florida will keep light and generally easterly and northeasterly flow in place across the forecast area this weekend and into early next week. A fairly dry airmass will limit rain chances, although enough moisture is present for isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop each afternoon and push west across the Florida Peninsula during the afternoon and into the Gulf during the evening, with the highest rain chances over the southern half of the forecast area. The forecast becomes more uncertain during the second half of next week, as a surface area of low pressure is forecast to form over the southern Gulf of Mexico by mid week, then continue to develop and move north through Gulf through the end of the week. While there is high confidence that something is going to develop, there is much lower confidence in forecasting the strength and exact track of this system, which means there is a large range of possible outcomes for the weather in west central and southwest Florida. At a minimum, atmospheric moisture is forecast to rebound during the second half of the week, which will allow for rain chances to increase each day. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 802 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 VFR conditions through the period with winds mainly out of the east and northeast. Isolated showers will be possible in the afternoon and evening but chances are to low to mention in TAFs. && .MARINE... Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 High pressure and drier air will hold over the area through the weekend and the early next week, with generally easterly flow remaining less than 15 knots through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered storms will be possible each day, creating locally higher winds and hazardous boating conditions. Winds will begin to increase on Wednesday as an area of low pressure develops in the southern Gulf of Mexico. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 No humidity concerns. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible each afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 75 92 75 / 20 10 20 10 FMY 92 75 93 76 / 30 20 20 10 GIF 92 73 93 75 / 20 10 30 0 SRQ 91 74 93 75 / 20 20 10 10 BKV 91 70 93 71 / 10 0 20 0 SPG 90 78 92 79 / 20 10 10 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn