312
FXUS62 KTBW 220840
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
440 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Surface ridging extends down the E Seaboard into the state this
morning, while aloft the state sits under northerly flow between
ridging across the Gulf and a trough over the W Atlantic. The
trough fills over the next few days with a residual weakness
lingering, while the Gulf ridging gradually builds over the
peninsula through late week resulting in suppressed rain chances
over most of the area save for interior S and SWFL locations that
may see an isolated afternoon to evening shower or storm. A few
shortwaves moving across the E U.S. over the weekend erode the
northern extent of the ridging forcing the ridge axis into the S
Gulf early next week as broad troughing sets up over the E U.S.
during the first half of the week. The surface ridge gradually
shifts E into the Atlantic over the weekend into next week which,
coupled with the troughing aloft, will favor deep layer W-SW flow
setting up over the area next week supporting an increase in
moisture over the state along with higher rain chances, highest
toward the interior. Afternoon highs today in the lower to mid
90s except for the upper 80s to around 90 along the immediate
coast, warming into the mid 90s away from the coast with pockets
of upper 90s possible late week through the weekend, with coastal
areas hovering near 90. Slight moderating trend likely into mid
week next week as moisture and rain chances increase over the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

VFR expected through the period with high pressure ridging into
the area supporting E-SE winds overnight through morning turning
onshore and increasing during the afternoon with the sea breeze
before diminishing during the evening and returning to E-SE
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

High pressure ridging into the region will lead to E-SE winds over
the next couple days, turning onshore with the sea breeze each
afternoon. Ridging gradually shifts east late week into the
weekend with with winds becoming S on Friday then SW-W over the
weekend into next week. Mainly rain free conditions expected over
the northern and central waters through the weekend with slight
chances over the southern waters, before rain chances expand
across all of the waters next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

High pressure will hold over the region into the weekend with a
chance of an afternoon and evening shower or thunderstorm, with
highest rain chances over the southern interior and southwest
Florida. Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels
with winds 15 mph or less. Potential for spotty areas of higher
afternoon dispersions over inland areas and southwest Florida
increases into the weekend and next week, otherwise no concerns
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  76  92  77 /  10  10  10   0
FMY  94  74  94  76 /  20  20  20  10
GIF  92  71  94  73 /  10  10  10   0
SRQ  93  74  92  76 /  10  10  10   0
BKV  93  68  94  69 /  10   0  10   0
SPG  91  78  91  79 /  10  10  10   0

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hurt
DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...Hubbard