Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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388 FXUS62 KTBW 231851 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 251 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 Strong ridging over the area with drier air will continue through the next 7 days with the main weather hazard being the heat we will see across the area. Talking about the heat we are looking at temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90`s across much of the area for Friday through the holiday weekend. The hottest day looks to be Sunday. The question will be if any interior spot across our area will get to the century mark. Looking at deterministic models the GFS is the only one right now showing it while EURO keeps us under. Also when looking at the probabilistic forecasts the warmest possible high temperatures (1 in 10 chance) puts a few spot right at 100 degrees. Due to this we will highs under 100 degrees for the weekend for now. However we want to caution everyone during this very hot holiday weekend to stay well hydrated and rest as much as you can when outside. The heat should continue into next week with the only main difference being a small uptick in the moisture which will help to develop a few storms Tuesday through Thursday but chances will stay between 20 and 30 percent. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 VFR expected through the period with seabreeze expected in the afternoon at all terminals except LAL. && .MARINE... Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 Strong ridging with dry weather expected through the Friday and the extended weekend. Winds will generally stay at or below 10 knots either out of the south or westerly direction. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 248 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 Hot and dry conditions will continue through the forecast period with RHs in the afternoon near or below critical levels during the afternoon hours. Highs in the interior will be approaching the mid to upper 90`s each day. No red flag is expected do to light winds in the forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 93 75 91 75 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 94 74 93 75 / 10 10 10 0 GIF 95 72 95 74 / 0 0 10 0 SRQ 92 75 90 75 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 95 67 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 92 78 91 78 / 0 0 0 0 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce