521
FXUS62 KTBW 021848
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
248 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

As we go through the rest of our Sunday ridging is to our north and
PWs have been increasing across the area. This will result in a
more typical summertime seabreeze pattern. Looking at our
seabreeze climatology we are currently in a regime 6 with a light
S to SE flow. This regime typically brings the majority of shower
activity pinned near the west coast with the highest PoPs south of
I4. We are already seeing this with a developing CU field along
the coast with coastal showers developing in Pasco and Charlotte
Counties.

This pattern seem to stay pretty consistent through Wednesday
with late afternoon and evening shower activity focused mainly on
the west coast of Florida. This will hopefully help to put a dent
into some of the drought we are seeing across the area.

Ridging will work its way to our south for the later half of the
week in response to a cold front that will start to push through the
Southeast. This will cause us to shift our focus to more inland
areas when it comes to afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity.

By Saturday the models are showing the front making it into Central
Florida. It is a little late in the season for us to see a front so
we will see if the models stay consistent with this solution
through the week, but if it does verify it would cause us to see
an increase in shower activity for the day.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period outside of
thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will be the biggest hazard to
terminals today as thunderstorm chances have gone up. Highest
confidence for thunderstorms on station will be at SRQ, PGD, FMY
and RSW where a TEMPO line was added but all terminals have a
chance of seeing thunderstorms through the late afternoon and
evening hours.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Ridging will remain to our north with some increase
moisture across the area. This will keep winds out of an easterly
direction for today and through mid week. This will also bring back
our typically seabreeze convection over the land each afternoon and
evening. These storm will drift into the Gulf each day mainly in the
late evening and early overnight hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Moisture has increase and winds have decreased compared to
yesterday as ridging has shifted to our north. This will keep RHs
above critical range with no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  90  76  93 /  50  70  30  50
FMY  72  91  73  94 /  60  80  50  80
GIF  73  92  72  94 /  50  70  10  60
SRQ  72  90  74  95 /  70  70  40  60
BKV  69  91  68  95 /  40  60  20  50
SPG  77  90  79  93 /  60  70  40  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Flannery
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Flannery