879
FXUS62 KTBW 161816
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
216 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Flow aloft over the region this afternoon has become nearly zonal,
with the surface frontal boundary sitting across the Florida
peninsula. South of this boundary and mainly over Lee county,
some showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to be possible
while relatively drier air has taken hold to the north. This
boundary will start to lift back northward tonight as another
storm system begins to develop to our west. Low-level flow turns
back to southwest through Friday, with increasing moisture once
again. The main question for tomorrow`s forecast will be rain
chances. It would make sense that moisture pooling along the
boundary would lead to some rain chances and a few other higher-
res models are indicating a weakening MCS moving across the
northern Gulf coast region, all of which would likely lead to some
shower activity and maybe a few storms. Whatever does develop
would then generally push inland with the southwest winds in
place.

For Saturday, southwest flow continues across the local area, with
warm and humid conditions persisting. Some showers and storms can be
expected in the afternoon, but these will again favor interior
locations. The frontal boundary associated with the next storm
system will move into north Florida Saturday night into Sunday, with
increasing shower and storm chances for the northern half of the
forecast area. The boundary very slowly shifts southward through
Sunday and Sunday night with rain chances moving with it.

A surface low tries to develop off the northeast Florida coast early
next week, which will help keep rain chances in the forecast
through Monday. Some drier air then moves in for Tuesday and
more so for Wednesday, with rain chances confined more to
southwest Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
A frontal boundary draped across the region this afternoon will
gradually lift northward tonight through Friday, with some sprinkles
or light showers possible. At this time, impacts to TAF sites are
not expected to be significant, so have left out of the forecast.
Also seeing some indications of possible patchy fog or low clouds
near southwest Florida sites, but confidence is on the low side.
Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions can be expected.

&&

.MARINE...
West to northwest winds today shift back to the southwest Friday as
a frontal boundary lifts northward across the area. Another storm
system will bring increasing rain chances for the waters over the
weekend. No headlines are expected, though winds and seas will be
higher in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No Red Flag concerns for the next several days as relative humidity
values will remain above normal. A frontal boundary over the region
will move north through Friday and then another storm system will
bring increasing rain chances for the area through this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  91  79  92 /  10  10   0  20
FMY  77  93  78  95 /  10  10   0  20
GIF  71  95  75  96 /   0  20   0  30
SRQ  76  91  77  93 /  10  10   0  20
BKV  66  93  71  94 /   0  20   0  30
SPG  79  89  81  90 /  10  10   0  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

05/Carlisle