Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
683
FXXX10 KWNP 300031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 May 30 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 30-Jun 01 2024 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale
G2).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 30-Jun 01 2024
May 30 May 31 Jun 01
00-03UT 3.00 1.67 5.67 (G2)
03-06UT 2.67 1.33 5.00 (G1)
06-09UT 2.00 1.33 4.33
09-12UT 1.67 1.33 3.00
12-15UT 1.33 1.33 2.33
15-18UT 1.67 4.67 (G1) 2.00
18-21UT 2.00 6.00 (G2) 2.67
21-00UT 2.00 5.33 (G1) 2.33
Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely
to commence by late 31 May and continue into 01 Jun due to flanking CME
effects from the aforementioned X1.4 flare and subsequent CME eruption
of 29 May.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 30-Jun 01 2024
May 30 May 31 Jun 01
S1 or greater 20% 20% 20%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton
event exceeding the S1 (Minor) threshold through 01 Jun primarily due to
the flare potential of Regions 3691 and 3697.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 29 2024 1437 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 30-Jun 01 2024
May 30 May 31 Jun 01
R1-R2 75% 75% 75%
R3 or greater 35% 35% 35%
Rationale: R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts are expected, with a
chance for isolated R3 (Strong) Radio Blackouts through 01 Jun.