456
FNUS75 KTFX 281202
FWSTFX

Spot Forecast for Two Calf RX...BLM
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
602 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 MDT on May 28.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
A high pressure ridge will keep the area dry and warmer than normal
through tonight with gusty southeast winds. Afternoon humidity will
fall to near 20 percent today, with moderate recovery overnight
ahead of an approaching cold front. The passage of the cold front
late tonight into Wednesday morning will shift the gusty winds more
northwesterly and bring showers and thunderstorms to the area. Brief
heavy rain showers and strong wind gusts will the main threats with
thunderstorms. The latest model guidance continues to show a 50-60%
chance of precipitation amounts exceeding 0.10" Wednesday with a
30-40% chance of amounts in excess of 0.25" and a 20% chance for
amounts of 0.50" or more.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....81-86.
Min humidity........21-26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts to 25 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......9000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 20 mph.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....53-58.
Max humidity........58-63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southeast winds 5 to 15 mph. Gusts to 25 mph
                    early in the evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 15 mph.
Haines Index........

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the morning, then rain showers
                    likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
CWR.................50 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 2.
Max temperature.....69-74.
Min humidity........35-40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph early, shifting to
                    the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph
                    by 1200 MDT. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Coulston
Requested by...Jay Peterman
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2415188.0/TFX
.DELDT 05/28/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jpeterman@blm.gov, tfx.ops@noaa.gov