241
FXUS63 KTOP 240537
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1237 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for storms increase overnight along a cold front.
  Damaging wind appears to be the main threat.

- Another round of active weather is then expected Saturday
  afternoon and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Southerly return flow is advecting warmer temperatures and higher
dew points into eastern KS this afternoon, making the air mass
increasingly buoyant. Surface obs show dew points around 70
degrees near the KS/OK state line and mid 60s creeping into
east-central KS as of 18Z. Two areas of low pressure are
evident, one over South Dakota and another over eastern
Colorado. A dryline extends southward from the Colorado low
across southwestern KS and into the Texas panhandle. Water vapor
imagery shows mid level cyclonic rotation located over the
WY/MT state line. This afternoon and evening, there is just a
slight chance for isolated thunderstorm development in the warm
sector. Confidence remains low given lack of upper support and
soundings showing a fairly dry column. Have kept chances around
20 percent to account for some weak warm front and isentropic
related ascent. If a storm does develop -- and again chances are
low -- the very unstable air mass will support severe weather.
DCAPE values above 1000 J/kg would support a damaging wind risk,
deep layer shear around 40 kts would support a hail threat and
0-3km SRH above 150 m2/s2 would support a tornado risk.

A better chance for thunderstorms still exists after midnight
along a cold front moving through eastern KS. The better large
scale forcing will be north of the area, but thinking is that
there will be enough convergence along the boundary, combined
with a 40-60 kt LLJ, to get storms going as the boundary
advances into north-central KS. Damaging wind appears to be the
main threat with the line of storms. Storms should exit into MO
by around 14Z Friday. Surface ridging takes over by Friday
afternoon, making for pleasant conditions at that point.

Attention then turns to the next system, set to bring active weather
back to the area early in the holiday weekend. Another warm front is
expected to lift northward through the area on Saturday as lee
cyclogenesis occurs ahead of an approaching mid level trough.
Instability could build quite rapidly in the warm sector during the
afternoon hours. Shear also looks impressive with various
models hinting at around 50 kts of bulk shear and some veering
of winds in the low levels. Coverage of storm is less certain,
but all modes of severe weather appear possible at this time
during the late afternoon and evening hours.

Calmer conditions then looks likely for the rest of the holiday
weekend and into the middle of next week with northwest flow
becoming more dominate aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

MVFR cigs have developed and will likely remain in place through
much of the overnight period, although periods of VFR cigs are
possible. Uncertainty remains in coverage of storms overnight,
but think the chances are high enough to continue a narrow
window of -TSRA before the front moves through by 13-14z. Skies
begin to clear after the front passes with winds staying gusty
from the northwest through late this afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Flanagan