Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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253 FXUS63 KTOP 042333 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 633 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered storms moving in from north central KS are expected to move southeast across the area this afternoon and evening, some of which may be severe with large hail and damaging winds. - Dry and seasonably warm weather returns Wednesday through Friday. - Northwest flow aloft brings in chances for overnight storms Friday and Saturday evenings. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Initial storm in central KS late this morning developed off an outflow boundary from earlier convection, with enough sfc convergence to develop a few additional storms early this afternoon that have maintained strength as they begin to move into our north central KS counties. This broken line of storms is still ahead of the sfc cold front in central NE that is progged to move southeastward into the area closer to 00Z. The environment has sufficient instability to support severe storms (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), although weakening deep-layer shear to the east and better lapse rates to the south still lead to some questions as to how long the updrafts can maintain themselves as storms progress eastward. CAMs haven`t been particularly consistent in how these storms early this afternoon will evolve, suggesting convection could remain a bit messy until the frontal boundary arrives to provide better forcing for ascent. From 00Z until around midnight, a few storms along the front could produce severe hail and/or damaging winds given sufficient instability and shear parameters. Lapse rates still look questionable, however. Once storms exit the area, high pressure filters in behind the system to bring drier and cooler air overnight with lows in the 50s. Upper ridging develops over the southwestern CONUS on Wednesday with a thermal axis overhead. This looks like our warmest day of the upcoming week with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. The ridge to our southwest and an upper trough in the Great Lakes region leaves our area within northwest flow from Thursday through the weekend. Embedded perturbations rounding the periphery of the ridge look to provide some opportunity for rain, mainly in the form of overnight convection Friday night into early Saturday and Saturday night into early Sunday. The more favorable areas for higher rainfall amounts with thunderstorms appears to be southwest of the area as of now, but the finer details will become clearer in the days to come. An early look into the first part of next week shows potential for slightly cooler temperatures with highs currently forecast in the low 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 633 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 VFR conditions are expected outside of any convection this evening. Main challenge is timing of tsra into the terminals given scattered nature of the convection. WIll continue with inclusion at MHK until 02Z. At TOP and FOE where confidence is low will just mention VCTS from 01Z-04Z and amend as needed. Winds shift to the northwest and north through the evening at speeds generally under 10kts. Northerly winds are expected through the rest of the period after they shift to the north behind a cold front. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Picha AVIATION...53