Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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404 FXUS63 KTOP 272249 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 549 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pleasant weather continues through midweek. - Off and on rain and storm chances enter the forecast again by Thursday into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Currently across the CONUS, the upper air pattern shows a large trough axis from the Great Lakes region into the southeastern CONUS. Another low amplitude shortwave trough is working across the the upper MS Valley region with a few storms on the southern flank into northern MO vicinity. Mostly a northwest flow regime is overhead from the central Plains into the northern Rockies. Another Pacific low pressure system is just off the coast of western Canada. The subtropical moisture remains well south of the area streaming across northern Mexico into southern TX. A high pressure surface ridge continues to expand into the local area resulting in decreasing moisture and weak dry air advection under sunny skies. The trend of dry and very pleasant conditions holds likely through Wednesday as a mid to upper level ridge amplifies over the western CONUS and slowly works East through midweek. Outside of some very subtle isentropic upglide over central areas overnight and possibly early Wednesday morning mostly sunny conditions are expected. If there is an rain produced by weak midlevel isentropic response along the 305K surface during the early morning hours would likely be isolated and not long lasting at all. Little to no accumulations would likely result. By the latter part of the day Thursday, storms are expected to form within the upslope region of the High Plains and as a low amplitude shortwave ejects out of the central Rockies working around the southern flank of a larger low pressure system in Canada should help nocturnal storms move into the region which will be one of the first evening/overnight periods this favorable setup may be in place off and on through the upcoming weekend. At most for any given period, have a 60-80% chance for showers and storms. The Westerlies and energy associated with the increased flow aloft looks to remain well north of the area. So not thinking at this time that the set up looks to favor traditional severe weather as much. Would anticipate more of these storms tend to weaken with eastward progression and result mostly in beneficial moisture into the early morning periods across at least portions of the forecast area. The pattern may become more amplified into early next week as the main trough finally swings through. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 548 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 VFR at terminals as sfc high moving in brings light northwest winds to the area. Passing mid level clouds overnight may clip terminals, lingering into the afternoon period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Drake AVIATION...Prieto