180
FXUS63 KTOP 280600
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
100 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant weather continues through midweek.

- Off and on rain and storm chances enter the forecast again by
  Thursday into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Currently across the CONUS, the upper air pattern shows a large
trough axis from the Great Lakes region into the southeastern CONUS.
Another low amplitude shortwave trough is working across the the
upper MS Valley region with a few storms on the southern flank into
northern MO vicinity. Mostly a northwest flow regime is overhead
from the central Plains into the northern Rockies. Another Pacific
low pressure system is just off the coast of western Canada. The
subtropical moisture remains well south of the area streaming
across northern Mexico into southern TX. A high pressure surface
ridge continues to expand into the local area resulting in
decreasing moisture and weak dry air advection under sunny
skies.

The trend of dry and very pleasant conditions holds likely through
Wednesday as a mid to upper level ridge amplifies over the western
CONUS and slowly works East through midweek. Outside of some very
subtle isentropic upglide over central areas overnight and possibly
early Wednesday morning mostly sunny conditions are expected. If
there is an rain produced by weak midlevel isentropic response along
the 305K surface during the early morning hours would likely be
isolated and not long lasting at all. Little to no accumulations
would likely result.

By the latter part of the day Thursday, storms are expected to form
within the upslope region of the High Plains and as a low amplitude
shortwave ejects out of the central Rockies working around the
southern flank of a larger low pressure system in Canada should help
nocturnal storms move into the region which will be one of the first
evening/overnight periods this favorable setup may be in place off
and on through the upcoming weekend. At most for any given period,
have a 60-80% chance for showers and storms. The Westerlies and
energy associated with the increased flow aloft looks to remain well
north of the area. So not thinking at this time that the set up
looks to favor traditional severe weather as much. Would anticipate
more of these storms tend to weaken with eastward progression and
result mostly in beneficial moisture into the early morning periods
across at least portions of the forecast area. The pattern may
become more amplified into early next week as the main trough
finally swings through.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Light winds
early this morning will become northwesterly by mid morning at
less than 10 KTS. Winds may turn light and variable late this
afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Gargan