859
FXUS64 KTSA 291118
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
618 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Decaying thunderstorms from yesterday has generated an MCV,
currently developing over western Oklahoma. Models in general
agreement with shifting mid level feature eastward in the area
today. This, coupled with daytime heating should be sufficient
for scattered showers/thunderstorms. CAMS hinting at slightly
better storm coverage this afternoon across portions of northeast
Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas where stronger diurnal heating will
occur in the more cloud free areas initially, which seems
reasonable. Lowered pops across the south this morning from the
higher NBM guidance with more uniform chance PoPS this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Storms that develop in the high Plains this afternoon have the
potential to form another MCS tonight, which could impact eastern
Oklahoma late tonight into Thursday morning. Given the uncertainties
regarding evolution of system, only chance PoPs seem warranted at
this time. It should be noted that latest 06Z HRRR shows this scenario
and PoPs may need to be increased if this trend continues.

Better thunderstorms chances appear likely Thursday night into
Friday as a stronger mid level wave shifts east into the southern
Plains. Low level moisture will continue to increase ahead of wave
and more widespread rainfall is expected during this time with
locally heavy rainfall possible. Depending on timing, a few strong
to severe thunderstorms will be possible during the day Friday
south of I-40.

Stronger westerly flow aloft will likely persist over the weekend
into the early part of next week with a series of weaker disturbances
possible. Shower/thunderstorm chances will therefore remain in
the forecast through the extended periods with a slow warming
trend through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will become possible this
afternoon across most TAF sites. Occasional MVFR or IFR conditions
could occur in any thunderstorms, otherwise VFR conditions will
prevail. Winds will stay light out of the southeast throughout
the day. Depending on cloud cover overnight tonight, some patchy
fog will be possible, especially across NW AR sites.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   82  64  79  65 /  50  30  50  60
FSM   82  66  79  66 /  50  40  40  40
MLC   81  65  78  66 /  50  50  50  50
BVO   82  61  78  62 /  40  30  40  60
FYV   81  61  78  63 /  50  30  40  40
BYV   82  60  77  61 /  40  30  30  30
MKO   79  64  77  64 /  50  40  50  50
MIO   82  61  78  63 /  40  30  40  40
F10   79  63  77  63 /  50  40  50  50
HHW   79  66  76  66 /  50  50  50  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...04