Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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882 FXUS64 KTSA 280755 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 255 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms continue early this morning across portions of southwest/south-central Oklahoma in zone of stronger warm advection. Some of this activity will likely move into portions of eastern Oklahoma later this morning. Although instability/lapse rates will decrease as storms lift northeast, a few could still produce large hail, especially across far southeast Oklahoma where instability will be maximized. Lingering showers/isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of the area this afternoon, but overall convective trends should be decreasing as storms grow upscale/shift southeast into NE TX. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Storms chances will persist for the next several days as a series of upper level disturbances traverse in stronger northwesterly flow aloft. Rich Gulf moisture will continue lifting north into the area with PWATS remaining in the 1.5-1.75 inch range Wednesday through Friday. Although specific timing of each system is obviously difficult at this point, it appears models are in general agreement with shifting a stronger upper wave out of the central Rockies Thursday night into Friday. More widespread precipitation is likely during this time with locally heavy rainfall possible. High temperatures should remain near or slightly below normal for the remainder of the work week given the increased cloud cover. Stayed with NBM guidance for now. Precip chances will continue through the weekend into the early part of next week given no major upper level pattern change. At least low severe chances will also be possible each day through the extended periods, although widespread severe weather is not expected. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 VFR conditions should prevail through much of the period, with the exception of within any heavier showers or thunderstorms that could move across the area today. Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will become possible across eastern Oklahoma sites by early to mid morning and spread east into Arkansas by late morning through mid afternoon. Winds remain light and variable through the period. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 84 63 81 63 / 30 30 40 20 FSM 87 66 81 65 / 30 30 50 20 MLC 84 64 81 65 / 50 40 60 20 BVO 84 58 80 60 / 30 20 30 10 FYV 85 60 79 60 / 20 20 40 10 BYV 82 60 79 59 / 20 20 30 10 MKO 82 63 78 63 / 30 30 50 20 MIO 80 58 79 60 / 30 20 20 10 F10 81 63 78 63 / 40 40 50 20 HHW 79 65 77 65 / 60 40 60 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...04