026
FXUS64 KTSA 291516
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1016 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1009 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

MCV evident in both Radar and satellite data north of OKC this
morning is expected to continue moving ENE through this
afternoon. Overall expectation remains for at least scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon, with some
enhancement likely across far northeast OK and much of northwest
AR where stronger insolation is occurring ahead of the MCV. Also
could see greater coverage into parts of southeast OK where deeper
moisture resides. Only minor changes were made tot he forecast,
keeping POPs in the chance category for now, with highest values
in above-mentioned areas.

Potential exists for an MCS to move into parts of the forecast
area either very late tonight or, more likely, Thursday morning.
Signal is there in much of the model data, however a consensus
regarding timing/track of storms still leaves some to be desired.
Thus will keep the POP forecast for tonight and Thursday as is.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Storms that develop in the high Plains this afternoon have the
potential to form another MCS tonight, which could impact eastern
Oklahoma late tonight into Thursday morning. Given the uncertainties
regarding evolution of system, only chance PoPs seem warranted at
this time. It should be noted that latest 06Z HRRR shows this scenario
and PoPs may need to be increased if this trend continues.

Better thunderstorms chances appear likely Thursday night into
Friday as a stronger mid level wave shifts east into the southern
Plains. Low level moisture will continue to increase ahead of wave
and more widespread rainfall is expected during this time with
locally heavy rainfall possible. Depending on timing, a few strong
to severe thunderstorms will be possible during the day Friday
south of I-40.

Stronger westerly flow aloft will likely persist over the weekend
into the early part of next week with a series of weaker disturbances
possible. Shower/thunderstorm chances will therefore remain in
the forecast through the extended periods with a slow warming
trend through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will become possible this
afternoon across most TAF sites. Occasional MVFR or IFR conditions
could occur in any thunderstorms, otherwise VFR conditions will
prevail. Winds will stay light out of the southeast throughout
the day. Depending on cloud cover overnight tonight, some patchy
fog will be possible, especially across NW AR sites.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   82  64  79  65 /  50  30  50  60
FSM   82  66  79  66 /  50  40  40  40
MLC   81  65  78  66 /  30  50  50  50
BVO   82  61  78  62 /  40  30  40  60
FYV   81  61  78  63 /  50  30  40  40
BYV   82  60  77  61 /  50  30  30  30
MKO   79  64  77  64 /  50  40  50  50
MIO   82  61  78  63 /  50  30  40  40
F10   79  63  77  63 /  30  40  50  50
HHW   79  66  76  66 /  30  50  50  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...04