Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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625 FXUS64 KTSA 271733 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1233 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1026 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Current forecast for today is on track. Only a few minor adjustments made to better reflect current trends. && .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Surface high pressure builds over the region today, making for a nice Memorial Day areawide. Skies will be clear, winds will be light, and temperatures will be warm as most locations warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon. No rain or storms in the forecast for today for a welcome break to the unsettled pattern that has been endured through much of May. Bowlan && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 A pattern change to more northwesterly flow aloft is still on track through the middle part of the week as mid level ridging expands into the western CONUS. This will bring chances for multiple thunderstorms complexes to impact the area through Thursday. The initial wave on Monday night into Tuesday could mainly stay focused west of the forecast area across central Oklahoma, with a gradual spread eastward for Tuesday night and Wednesday. The western ridge breaks down somewhat toward the latter part of the week with more zonal to southwesterly flow aloft spreading back over the Plains. Several disturbances look to move through the area, with near daily thunderstorm chances continuing into the weekend as the warm, moist airmass remains in place. Some semblance of severe weather threat will likely set up, along with the threat of heavy rainfall. Some guidance indicates a frontal boundary will move into the area late next weekend and possibly provide a more focused severe threat, but many differences exist this far out for any definitive area that might see a higher end severe threat. Temperatures through the period will depend on the evolution of thunderstorms every night, but will mainly stay near seasonal averages for this time of year. Bowlan && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid period at all area sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 63 83 62 83 / 10 30 30 30 FSM 64 87 65 83 / 0 30 30 40 MLC 64 86 64 82 / 10 40 40 50 BVO 59 80 58 82 / 20 30 20 30 FYV 60 84 59 82 / 0 20 20 30 BYV 60 83 59 80 / 0 20 10 20 MKO 63 84 62 80 / 10 30 30 40 MIO 60 81 58 81 / 10 20 10 20 F10 63 83 62 80 / 10 40 40 40 HHW 66 84 64 78 / 30 40 60 50 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...10