299
FXUS64 KTSA 281917
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
217 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Bulk of shower and storm activity gas remained to the
west this afternoon, though some activity is noted across
parts of NE OK. Rain and storm chances will continue tonight
with any weak waves traversing the area in W-NW flow aloft.
Slightly higher PoPs will be focused across the western portion
of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Deep gulf moisture will continue to feed into the area
through Friday while the upper pattern remains active. As is
often seen, model spread regarding timing and placement of an any
individual upper wave problematic, so including PoPs everywhere
in most if not all periods of the forecast cycle is reasonable
given the upper pattern. At this time, best chances for rain/storms
appear to be late Thursday night into Friday as a more notable
upper wave moves through. Additional, but lower chances for rain
and storms will continue through the weekend and into next week as
little overall change in the upper pattern is expected.
Widespread severe weather is not expected over the next several
days, though an isolated strong to marginally severe storm is
possible.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Outside of any influence from showers/ storms, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the forecast period for all TAF sites.
TEMPO groups were maintained through ~21z for NE OK/ NW AR sites
for scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. For MLC &
FSM (and beyond 21z elsewhere) confidence remains too low to
mention precip, but will amend if needed. Another opportunity for
precip/ reduced cigs arrives early tomorrow morning through the
end of the forecast period, and have introduced PROB30 groups for
all sites. Sfc winds are mostly expected to remain under 10 kts
through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  78  63  79 /  40  50  20  30
FSM   66  81  65  79 /  30  60  20  20
MLC   64  79  63  78 /  40  70  20  30
BVO   59  78  59  79 /  40  40  10  30
FYV   61  80  60  78 /  30  60  20  20
BYV   60  77  58  78 /  20  50  10  20
MKO   64  78  63  78 /  30  60  20  30
MIO   60  78  59  79 /  30  40  10  30
F10   64  77  62  78 /  40  60  20  40
HHW   65  79  65  78 /  40  70  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...43