219
FXUS64 KTSA 250532
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1232 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 902 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Several updates already sent have reflected removing counties
from the SVR watch and adjusting PoPs accordingly as the cold
front passed. Will continue to issue updates in that same vein
this evening, though at this time overnight temperatures and
rest of first period elements outside of PoPs/thunder look good
and will be left as is.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Warm sector quickly recovers during the day Saturday with data
remaining consistent in a broad fetch of a strongly unstable and
deeply sheared airmass overspreading much of the Southern Plains
by late afternoon. The approaching shortwave trough and associated
wind fields are all within the classic configuration supporting a
significant severe weather event from late Saturday afternoon
through Saturday night. The higher storm coverage will focus north
of the local region along the sfc low track and warm frontal
zone. Further south along the dryline through OK storm coverage
remains more uncertain, however confidence remains high in at
least isolated to scattered supercells initiating along the
dryline through central OK and spreading into E OK during the
evening hours. The background environment supports significant
severe weather potential and weather conditions should be followed
closely from trusted weather sources Saturday evening into the
overnight hours.

The cold front associated with the passing wave lags to the west
and does not completely clear western AR until Sunday afternoon.
The bulk of guidance keeps the frontal passage dry with only low
chances of storms developing along the boundary during the day
Sunday. This period will continue to monitored for higher storm
potential but at this time it appears Sunday is a trend downward
in the severe potential.

A brief dry period Monday into Tuesday as sfc high pressure
prevails. The flow aloft becomes northwesterly through the Plains
by mid week and will eventually support repeated rounds of
thunderstorm complexes moving through the region Wednesday into
Friday. By late week the pattern likely returns to more
southwesterly flow aloft and unsettled and stormy conditions
persist.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Cold front currently moving into west-central Arkansas, extending
southwest into east-central Oklahoma early this morning. Scattered
to broken MVFR ceilings will be possible along and north of front
overnight with some fog potential at NW AR TAF sites. Otherwise,
south winds will begin to increase during the day Saturday. A few
strong to severe storms may impact E OK TAF sites after 00Z,
where PROB30 groups were introduced.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  72  90  61 /   0  40   0  10
FSM   90  73  90  66 /   0  20  20  20
MLC   88  72  91  62 /   0  20  10  10
BVO   87  69  88  57 /   0  40   0  10
FYV   86  69  87  60 /   0  30  20  20
BYV   86  70  87  61 /   0  30  20  20
MKO   86  72  89  63 /   0  30  10  10
MIO   85  69  86  58 /   0  50  20  10
F10   87  72  90  61 /   0  40   0  10
HHW   87  72  89  65 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...12