Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
367 FXUS65 KTWC 240907 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 207 AM MST Fri May 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Seasonably warm and dry conditions will continue for the next few days with breezy conditions on tap each afternoon. Saturday will see the strongest winds as a weak disturbance moves through this weekend. Highs will climb and potentially exceed 100 early next week as weak high pressure ridge builds over the region. && .DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this morning showed scattered areas of cirrus moving across the area under zonal flow aloft. Main concern in the short-term is fire related on Saturday as a weather system passed by to our north bringing gusty southwest winds Saturday afternoon. See fire weather section below for further details. Highs today similar to what occurred yesterday with cooler highs on tap for Saturday. Next week will see above normal high temperature as we close out the month of May. The Santa Cruz ice will break during the first half of next week with the Tucson airport recording the first official triple digit high of 2024. The only question will be which day with Tuesday (56%) having the higher probability versus Monday (11%) and Wednesday (54%). && .AVIATION...Valid through 25/12Z. SCT cirrus level clouds AOA 20k ft MSL thru much of valid pd. SFC winds terrain driven less than 10 kts thru 24/17z and then again after 25/04z. Btwn 24/17z and 25/04z SFC winds SWLY 10-18 kts with gusts up to 28 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with breezy to locally windy afternoons today and especially on Saturday. Minimum RH values bottoming out in the single digits in valleys with poor to fair overnight recoveries. Critical fire weather conditions Saturday east of Arizona, especially for fire weather zone 152 where a Red Flag Warning has been posted for Saturday from 10 am to 9 pm. Temperatures near typical values for late May, with hotter afternoons likely all next week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MST Saturday for AZZ152. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson