Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
988 FXUS65 KTWC 282115 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 215 PM MST Tue May 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS...High temperatures will run above normal over the next seven days as we close out May and begin June. && .DISCUSSION...A ridge of high pressure will continue building allowing for temperatures to climb a couple degrees warmer than yesterday. High temperatures will run 2-5 degrees above normal as a result. Otherwise, high wispy Cirrus clouds will pass through southeast Arizona this afternoon and evening providing little relief from the desert sunshine. Zooming out and looking at the overall upper air pattern, a strong storm system moving ashore this afternoon over the Canadian Rockies will result in a weak trough extending down the western CONUS. The trough will have minimal influence on southeast Arizona weather putting only a small dent of a degree or two in our high temperatures for tomorrow and Thursday with typical afternoon breeziness. On Friday, shortwave ridging returns resulting in rapidly rising temperatures. Looking ahead, mean height cluster anomalies are in agreement that an amplified ridge will build by the latter half of next week across the western CONUS. This suggests that hot, dry, and stagnant conditions will become the forecast focus with 105 probably not too far down the line. && .AVIATION...Valid through 30/00Z. FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL through 29/15Z and then SKC for the remainder of the forecast period. SWLY/WLY SFC wind at 11-15 kts and gusts to 20-27 kts through 29/03Z, with the strongest SFC wind southeast of KTUS in the vicinity of KALK and KDUG. Overnight winds generally less than 10 kts and variable in direction. After 29/18Z, SFC winds SWLY/WSLY at 11-15 kts and gusts up to 18-25 kts to the end of the forecast period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments && .FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be 2-5 degrees above normal through the upcoming weekend. Expect min RH values of 3-8 percent in the lower elevations and 8-15 percent in the mountains the next 7 days, with poor overnight recoveries between 20-30 percent in most locations. 20-foot winds will follow typical diurnal patterns this week, with afternoon/early evening gustiness due to strong surface heating. The strongest sustained 20-foot winds will generally be across portions of Cochise County, where wind speeds will be in the 15-20 mph range, with some gusts to around 30 mph for a couple of hours during the mid to late afternoon hours. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson