187
FXUS65 KTWC 282112
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
212 PM MST Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures will run above normal over the next
seven days as we close out May and begin June.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A ridge of high pressure will continue building
allowing for temperatures to climb a couple degrees warmer than
yesterday. High temperatures will run 2-5 degrees above normal as a
result. Otherwise, high wispy Cirrus clouds will pass through
southeast Arizona this afternoon and evening providing little relief
from the desert sunshine.

Zooming out and looking at the overall upper air pattern, a strong
storm system moving ashore this afternoon over the Canadian Rockies
will result in a weak trough extending down the western CONUS. The
trough will have minimal influence on southeast Arizona weather
putting only a small dent of a degree or two in our high
temperatures for tomorrow and Thursday with typical afternoon
breeziness. On Friday, shortwave ridging returns resulting in
rapidly rising temperatures.

Looking ahead, mean height cluster anomalies are in agreement that
an amplified ridge will build by the latter half of next week across
the western CONUS. This suggests that hot, dry, and stagnant
conditions will become the forecast focus with 105 probably not too
far down the line.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 30/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL through 29/15Z and then SKC for the
remainder of the forecast period. SWLY/WLY SFC wind at 11-15 kts and
gusts to 20-27 kts through 29/03Z, with the strongest SFC wind
southeast of KTUS in the vicinity of KALK and KDUG. Overnight winds
generally less than 10 kts and variable in direction. After 29/18Z,
SFC winds SWLY/WSLY at 11-15 kts and gusts up to 18-25 kts to the
end of the forecast period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be 2-5 degrees above normal
through the upcoming weekend. Expect min RH values of 3-8 percent in
the lower elevations and 8-15 percent in the mountains the next 7
days, with poor overnight recoveries between 20-30 percent in most
locations. 20-foot winds will follow typical diurnal patterns this
week, with afternoon/early evening gustiness due to strong surface
heating. The strongest sustained 20-foot winds will generally be
across portions of Cochise County, where wind speeds will be in the
15-20 mph range, with some gusts to around 30 mph for a couple of
hours during the mid to late afternoon hours.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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