770
FXUS65 KTWC 180857
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
157 AM MST Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry with higher temperatures this weekend. A weak
trough will bring temperatures down to near-normal early next
week with breezy afternoon winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A shortwave ridge will push temperatures to around
5-8 degrees above average into Monday. Keeping an eye out for
Tucson possibly hitting the first 100 degree day of the year
today.

A broad trough is developing through the Great Basin and much of
the intermountain west, with a weak low expected to be drawn into
the base of the trough from the eastern Pacific. This should
bring breezy winds to the area Monday afternoon, with a few
buildups possible near the mountains late Monday into Monday
evening. PoPs are low to nonexistent with limited available
moisture currently in the forecast. However, we continue to see
very interesting NAEFS mean integrated water vapor transport
trends into our corner of the state for Monday and Monday evening
to go along with the breezy gradient winds.

A broad zonal flow by mid week with weak troughiness again through
much of the region later in the week should keep temperatures
within a few degrees of climo most of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 19/12Z.
FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL primarily between 18/12Z and 18/21Z.
From KTUS east, FEW Cumulus around 8-10k ft AGL between 18/20Z and
19/03Z. SFC winds light and variable this morning becoming SWLY thru
WNWLY at 7-15 kts with a few gusts up to 25 kts from 18/17Z thru
19/04. Thereafter, winds diminish to less than 12 kts and variable
in direction.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions continue this weekend with
min RHs in the single digits for the lower valleys and the teens for
the higher terrain. Temperatures this weekend approach the high 90s
for much of the valleys, with Saturday being the hottest day, before
dropping to near normal by Tuesday. Westerly 20-foot winds will
generally follow diurnal trends through the beginning of next week
with gusty afternoon winds (less than 30 mph). However, Monday and
Tuesday will have the strongest 20-foot winds due to a passing
system to our north (wind gusts up to 35 mph). In addition, there is
potential for isolated dry thunderstorms Monday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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