367
FXUS65 KTWC 240907
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
207 AM MST Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Seasonably warm and dry conditions will continue for
the next few days with breezy conditions on tap each afternoon.
Saturday will see the strongest winds as a weak disturbance moves
through this weekend. Highs will climb and potentially exceed 100
early next week as weak high pressure ridge builds over the
region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this morning showed scattered
areas of cirrus moving across the area under zonal flow aloft.
Main concern in the short-term is fire related on Saturday as a
weather system passed by to our north bringing gusty southwest
winds Saturday afternoon. See fire weather section below for
further details. Highs today similar to what occurred yesterday
with cooler highs on tap for Saturday.

Next week will see above normal high temperature as we close out
the month of May. The Santa Cruz ice will break during the first
half of next week with the Tucson airport recording the first
official triple digit high of 2024. The only question will be
which day with Tuesday (56%) having the higher probability versus
Monday (11%) and Wednesday (54%).

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 25/12Z.
SCT cirrus level clouds AOA 20k ft MSL thru much of valid pd. SFC
winds terrain driven less than 10 kts thru 24/17z and then again
after 25/04z. Btwn 24/17z and 25/04z SFC winds SWLY 10-18 kts with
gusts up to 28 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with breezy to locally windy
afternoons today and especially on Saturday. Minimum RH values
bottoming out in the single digits in valleys with poor to fair
overnight recoveries. Critical fire weather conditions Saturday
east of Arizona, especially for fire weather zone 152 where a Red
Flag Warning has been posted for Saturday from 10 am to 9 pm.
Temperatures near typical values for late May, with hotter
afternoons likely all next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MST Saturday for AZZ152.

&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson