760
FGUS63 KKRF 241527
ESPUDT

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1138 PM CDT MON SEP 23 2024

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********* THESE NUMBERS ARE PRODUCED WITH HEFS *********

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IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT ESP (CS), HEFS, AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR
NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD
STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

HEFS VALUES INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE ESP PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS OR HEFS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS OR
HEFS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS
LOWER THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  09/28/2024 - 12/27/2024

                            :       CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                            :       OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                            :             AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
             CATEGORICAL    :
          FLOOD STAGES (FT) :      MINOR        MODERATE        MAJOR
LOCATION  MINOR  MOD  MAJOR | HEFS  CS   HS |HEFS  CS   HS |HEFS  CS   HS
--------  ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:LITTLE MUDDY CR AT WILLISTON ND 10NE
LMCN8      10.0  12.0  14.0 |  <5   <5    8 | <5   <5   <5 | <5   <5   <5
:LTL MISSOURI R AT CAMP CROOK SD
CACS2      12.0  17.0  19.0 |  <5   <5   <5 | <5   <5   <5 | <5   <5   <5
:LITTLE MISSOURI R AT MARMARTH ND
MTHN8      18.0  23.0  30.0 |  <5   <5   <5 | <5   <5   <5 | <5   <5   <5
:LTL MISSOURI R AT MEDORA ND
MDAN8      15.0  18.0  20.0 |  <5   <5   <5 | <5   <5   <5 | <5   <5   <5
:LITTLE MISSOURI R AT WATFORD CITY ND14S
WTFN8      20.0  24.0  30.0 |  <5   <5   <5 | <5   <5   <5 | <5   <5   <5
:KNIFE R AT MANNING ND
MNGN8      15.0  17.0  20.0 |  <5   <5   <5 | <5   <5   <5 | <5   <5   <5
:SPRING CR AT ZAP ND
ZAPN8      14.0  18.0  20.0 |  <5   <5   10 | <5   <5   <5 | <5   <5   <5
:KNIFE R AT HAZEN ND 1S
HZNN8      21.0  24.0  25.0 |  <5   <5    9 | <5   <5    7 | <5   <5   <5
:HEART R AT MANDAN ND 3W
MDNN8      27.0  33.0  38.0 |  <5   <5   <5 | <5   <5   <5 | <5   <5   <5
:APPLE CR AT MENOKEN ND 6W
MENN8      15.0  16.0  17.0 |  <5    7    9 | <5   <5    8 | <5   <5    7

LEGEND
HEFS = HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICE SIMULATION (CURRENT)
CS   = CONDITIONAL ESP SIMULATION (CURRENT)
HS   = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT   = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--HEFS EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 0928 Z DH12 /DC2409240438/DVD90/HGVFPXT/HGVFPX9/HGVFPXH
.B1 /HGVFPX5/HGVFPXG/HGVFPX1/HGVFPXF

:            CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                 VALID PERIOD = 09/28/2024 - 12/27/2024

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:LITTLE MUDDY CR
LMCN8       4.4/    4.4/    4.4/    4.4/    4.4/    4.4/    6.3/

:LTL MISSOURI R
CACS2       1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    2.1/    2.0/    2.5/    4.3/

:LITTLE MISSOURI R
MTHN8       1.1/    1.1/    1.1/    1.1/    1.1/    1.6/    3.2/

:LTL MISSOURI R
MDAN8       1.4/    1.4/    1.4/    1.4/    1.4/    2.1/    4.5/

:LITTLE MISSOURI R
WTFN8       7.1/    7.1/    7.1/    7.2/    7.1/    8.9/    9.7/

:KNIFE R
MNGN8       6.3/    6.3/    6.3/    7.4/    6.7/    9.8/   11.8/

:SPRING CR
ZAPN8       4.8/    4.8/    4.8/    5.2/    5.0/    6.3/    8.1/

:KNIFE R
HZNN8       0.7/    0.7/    0.7/    2.3/    1.7/    4.2/    6.3/

:HEART R
MDNN8       9.7/    9.7/    9.7/    9.9/    9.9/   11.3/   18.8/

:APPLE CR
MENN8       4.4/    4.4/    4.4/    5.7/    5.4/    8.8/   11.8/
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--HEFS NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 0928 Z DH12 /DC2409240438/DVD90/HGVFPNT/HGVFPN9/HGVFPNH
.B1 /HGVFPN5/HGVFPNG/HGVFPN1/HGVFPNF

:      CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:               VALID PERIOD = 09/28/2024 - 12/27/2024

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:LITTLE MUDDY CR
LMCN8       4.3/    4.3/    4.3/    4.2/    4.2/    4.2/    4.2/

:LTL MISSOURI R
CACS2       1.8/    1.7/    1.7/    1.7/    1.7/    1.7/    1.7/

:LITTLE MISSOURI R
MTHN8       0.9/    0.9/    0.9/    0.9/    0.9/    0.9/    0.9/

:LTL MISSOURI R
MDAN8       1.2/    1.2/    1.2/    1.2/    1.2/    1.2/    1.2/

:LITTLE MISSOURI R
WTFN8       7.0/    7.0/    7.0/    7.0/    7.0/    7.0/    7.0/

:KNIFE R
MNGN8       6.0/    6.0/    6.0/    6.0/    6.0/    6.0/    6.0/

:SPRING CR
ZAPN8       4.8/    4.8/    4.8/    4.8/    4.8/    4.8/    4.8/

:KNIFE R
HZNN8       0.6/    0.6/    0.6/    0.6/    0.6/    0.6/    0.6/

:HEART R
MDNN8       9.3/    9.2/    9.1/    9.1/    9.1/    9.1/    9.1/

:APPLE CR
MENN8       4.3/    4.3/    4.3/    4.2/    4.2/    4.2/    4.2/
.END

$$