Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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202 FXUS63 KUNR 171650 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1050 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold front this evening with gusty northwest winds. - Strong to severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening across northwestern South Dakota with the main threat damaging wind gusts. - Unsettled pattern continues through much of next week. && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Thursday) Issued at 222 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024 Current surface map places low across southern Saskatchewan with weak trough extending into central South Dakota. Subtle shortwave is crossing the western Dakota with a few showers across northwestern South Dakota. Current shower activity will come to an end early this morning. Surface low deepens across Saskatchewan this afternoon with secondary low developing around the Big Horns into southeastern Montana. Low level thermal ridge peaks this afternoon with breezy south-southwest winds with highs reaching the 80s across the plains of western South Dakota. Lack of buoyancy will initially limit thunderstorm development to Black Hills this afternoon. Better chance of thunderstorms comes across northwestern South Dakota late this afternoon/evening with increasing mid level forcing and cold frontal passage. The cold front arrives in northeastern Wyoming and northwestern South Dakota late this afternoon and moves through the rest of western South Dakota this evening. Overall, buoyancy/shear may be enough for a marginally severe hail threat. The biggest severe threat will be damaging winds with enhanced downdrafts given available DCAPE. Post-frontal pressure rises of 4-6mb/3hr will result in a period of gusty northwest winds. Have issued a wind advisory for the plains of northwest/west-central South Dakota for this evening/overnight. Dry, cooler, and breezy conditions expected Saturday. Next shortwave impacts the area late Sunday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Upper trough lingers across the Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies through much of next week with a series of impulses crossing the area. This will result in daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Saturday) Issued At 1046 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024 Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across far northeast Wyoming, the Black Hills area, and northwest South Dakota. Strong winds will be possible with these storms, along with hail and MVFR conditions. While there is the potential for a storm or two to impact the KRAP or KGCC terminals later this afternoon and evening, confidence is low in this occuring and therefore left mention out of the TAFs. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A cold front moving from northwest to southeast will bring strong northwest winds to the area after 00z, with gusts to 45 kt possible. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM MDT Saturday for SDZ001-002-012>014-025-026-031-032-072-073-078. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...7 AVIATION...Wong