Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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918 FXUS63 KUNR 251051 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 451 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Showers/Thunderstorms this weekend -Warmer and drier mid-week with thunderstorms returning for the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Friday) Issued at 156 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024 Current surface map places weak trough across western South Dakota. Water vapor imagery shows elongated upper low over southern Canada into the Great Lakes. For today, shortwave tracks across the Rockies into the central Plains with surface low deepening over Kansas. Inverted trough extends northward into central South Dakota this afternoon. Low level moisture pooling along with steep mid level lapse rates results in narrow axis of MLCAPE around 1000J/kg over south central South Dakota. A few strong/isolated severe thunderstorms possible with marginal shear. Stronger shortwave rotates through the Northern Plains tonight/Sunday with a higher probabilities of showers and thunderstorms. Upper level ridge builds across the Rockies early in the week then shifts across the Plains mid-week. Dry and much warmer with highs in the 80s by Wednesday. Ensembles in decent agreement with upper trough over the Rockies/Plains for the end of the week with a return of showers/thunderstorms to the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Sunday Morning) Issued At 447 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024 Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. A few high based showers/storms are possible across the Black Hills into southwestern and south central this afternoon into this evening. Expect gusty and erratic winds and locally MVFR conditions near any storms. Scattered showers and storms move into NE WY later tonight (after 06z) though due to low confidence in coverage of storms, left mention out of the KGCC TAF. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...7 AVIATION...Wong