219
FXUS63 KUNR 040015
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
615 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms expected this afternoon into early
  Tuesday. A few stronger storms possible this afternoon and
  evening over northwest SD.

- Gusty northwest winds expected across northwest SD Tuesday and
  Wednesday.

- Warm weather expected for mid week into the weekend, with
  chances for showers and storms returning by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday)
Issued at 113 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Water vapor shows upper low/trof over the Pac NW moving into the
Northern Rockies, with southwest flow aloft through the Northern
Plains. At the surface, trof extends from eastern MT through
eastern CO. Early afternoon temps are in the 70s to mid 80s with
breezy southerly winds.

Scattered showers/storms are expected to develop this afternoon
into the evening across the region as surface trof associated with
ejecting upper level energy crosses the area. Most activity
should be rather weak, but better shear with MLCAPE around
1000J/kg across northwest could produce a stronger storm or two
there. Additional activity may develop across our northwest zones
overnight as upper low moves near the MT/CNDN border.

Activity will gradually shift east on Tuesday, with gusty
northwest winds and highs in the 70s. The strongest winds will be
across far northwest SD and a wind advisory may become necessary.

Another upper wave strengthens across south central Canada on
Wednesday and may produce even stronger winds across northwest SD,
and advisory level winds are looking likely with some small chance
for low end warning criteria near the ND border. Dry conditions
expected Wednesday with highs in the 70s to near 80.

Developing upper ridge over the western CONUS with dry northwest
flow expected mid to late week. Dry conditions with temps near to
slightly above average expected. A more unsettled pattern looks to
develop by the weekend and continue into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued At 612 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue through mid
evening, with a few stronger storms possible across northwest
South Dakota. Scattered showers will then cross the area from
west to east late tonight through mid-morning Tuesday. VFR
conditions will continue until 06Z tonight, when a band of
localized MVFR conditions are possible along a secondary cold
front as it passes through northeastern Wyoming and western South
Dakota early Tuesday morning.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Johnson
AVIATION...15/Wong