Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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560 FXUS63 KUNR 281031 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 431 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer today and Wednesday - Thunderstorms return Wednesday afternoon and evening with potential for large hail/damaging wind - Chance of showers/thunderstorms continue through the weekend && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Monday) Issued at 215 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024 Current surface map places trough across eastern Montana into northwestern South Dakota. For today, upper level ridge over the Rockies shifts into the plains. Partly cloudy skies today with highs in the 70s...60s in the Black Hills. As ridge shifts east of the area tonight, modest theta-e advection and steep mid level lapse rates may bring some isolated showers/thunderstorms. Windy and warmer on Wednesday as upper trough moves across the northern Rockies. Increasing low level moisture sets the stage for thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon over northeastern Wyoming/western South Dakota with MLCAPE around 1500J/KG. Weak/moderate shear will favor strong/severe storms along initial surface trough Wednesday afternoon, with secondary round of thunderstorms along cold front. Cooler and breezy on Thursday with bulk of shower/thunderstorm activity east of the forecast area and in downstream convergence of southern Black Hills/far southwestern South Dakota. Active pattern continues through the weekend with series of progressive troughs moving through the Northern Plains. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Wednesday Morning) Issued At 431 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024 VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...7 AVIATION...Wong