Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
575 FXUS65 KVEF 250745 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1245 AM PDT Sat May 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Breezy westerly winds can be expected again today especially across the Mojave Desert region with near normal temperatures. More typical afternoon breezes will resume Sunday onward with a warming trend through midweek. && .SHORT TERM...through tomorrow. Considerable cloud cover exists to the north of Las Vegas and across much of central and northern Nevada early this morning in association with a broad trough moving through. This trough axis will begin to shift east by this afternoon with the flow aloft turning more westerly. Winds today will remain elevated thanks to the broad surface temperature gradient that exists across the Great Basin but will begin to trend lighter compared to Friday. Temperatures will top out near seasonal average for the day thanks to the reduction in heights behind the trough axis, but warmer temperatures will quickly return for the long term period. .LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday. Flow aloft quickly transitions from a tough to ridge over the 2nd half of the holiday weekend. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement on placing the ridge axis just east of our CWA. This should allow light southerly breezes to enhance vertical mixing, warming temperatures in conjunction with rising 500mb heights. This general synoptic pattern looks like it`ll hold through at least most of next week. There is a PacNW trough that will try to deamplify the ridge by midweek, but at the moment it appears that any 500mb height falls it induces over our area will be offset by an uptick in breezes and mixing. The NBM median high for Las Vegas hovers around 100 degrees each day next week, though the 25th-75th percentile spread does increase in the latter half due to uncertainty in ridge amplitude. Bottom line: above-normal temperatures are very likely (90% chance) next week. The aforementioned mid-week trough is really the only potential "weathermaker" in the extended forecast. Should it dig south into the Northern Great Basin, there is potential for gusty conditions across the southern half of our CWA and maybe some isolated convection in our northern zones. However, only about 20% of all ensemble members support this solution. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Gusty southwest winds between 20 and 30 kts will continue through much of the overnight period, with gradually decreasing speeds. Winds will become light and variable by the early-morning hours before gusty west-southwest winds 15 to 25 kts return for the afternoon. Speeds will decrease after sunset. VFR conditions will prevail through the majority of the TAF period with occasional FEW aoa 15 kft. For the rest of southern Nevada, southwestern California, and northwestern Arizona...Gusty southwest winds between 20 and 30 kts will prevail through much of the overnight period for the Las Vegas Valley TAF sites with gradual diminishing through the early morning. Gusty west-southwest winds will return this afternoon with similar speeds expected. Light north winds at KBIH will persist through around 20Z when northwest gusts around 20 kts will pick up through the evening. Expect persistent gusty west winds between 25 and 30 kts at KDAG through the TAF period. Breezy-to-occasionally-gusty south-southwest winds expected at KEED and KIFP through the TAF period. VFR conditions will prevail with occasional FEW aoa 15 kft. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Outler LONG TERM...Woods AVIATION...Varian For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter