Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
302 FXUS65 KVEF 260754 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1254 AM PDT Sun May 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Quiet rest of the holiday weekend in store with warmer temperatures and less wind Sunday and Memorial Day. Stronger breezes return Tuesday and beyond while temperatures hover several degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM...through Memorial Day. Shortwave trough responsible for the gusty conditions the past couple of days will shift east today with heights gradually climbing through the holiday weekend. Temperatures today will top out near seasonal normals, and rise a few degrees above normal on Monday. While will winds will be lighter, we will still have some southerly afternoon breezes to contend with but gusts should generally stay below 20 mph each day. Sunshine will be abundant so make sure to thoroughly apply sunscreen if recreating outdoors over the weekend. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday. Model clusters are in good agreement Tuesday and Wednesday showing the ridge axis drifting away to our east and low pressure reaching the British Columbia coast. Thereafter, about 70% of the ensemble members show the low pressure tracking east across southern Canada, while the other 30% show it deepening into the western US. The majority solution, which the forecast will lean toward, suggests dry weather areawide with only afternoon cumulus and occasional waves of cirrus passing through. Temperatures would be about five degrees above normal for the end of May, with highs around 100 in Las Vegas, 105 in the lower Colorado River Valley, and 110 in Death Valley. The minority solution would knock temperatures down to near or slightly below normal, with slight chances for showers and thunderstorms in the southern Great Basin, mainly Thursday and Friday. Either way, high-impact weather looks unlikely, aside from the heat. A few ensemble members build strong ridging and crank up the heat after this forecast period. While this is not the most likely solution, it would be the most impactful, so it must be kept in mind. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Breezy south-southwest winds will continue into the overnight hours with gusts between 12 and 18 kts. Gust speeds will gradually diminish through the night before winds dwindle to light and variable around 12Z. Picking up in the late- morning and early-afternoon, breezy east winds between 6 and 8 kts will prevail through sunset with occasional gusts to 15 kts. Overnight, breezy southwest winds expected. No operationally significant cloud cover expected through the TAF period. For the rest of southern Nevada, southwestern California, and northwestern Arizona...Light and variable winds this morning will give way to breezy south winds across the forecast area, with speeds generally between 6 and 10 kts and occasional gusts to 15 kts. The exception will be KDAG, where breezy west-northwest winds will persist through the afternoon before gusts to 20 kts pick up from the west in the evening. No operationally significant cloud cover expected through the TAF period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Outler LONG TERM...Morgan AVIATION...Varian For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter