Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
719 FXUS65 KVEF 190923 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 224 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Gusty winds increase through the weekend and Monday with the strongest winds expected to occur in San Bernardino County. Showers and thunderstorms are possible again today, but will mainly be confined to Lincoln County and the Sierra crest. Temperatures will decrease as an upper level trough moves into the area leading to near normal temperatures by Monday. && .SHORT TERM...through Monday. An upper level trough moving into the western US will bring increasing southwest to west winds, cooler temperatures, and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to portions of central Nevada and the Sierra crest. Most of the area will see breezy conditions through the afternoon, but surface pressure gradients are expected to tighten this evening and bring increasing winds to areas across San Bernardino, Clark, and Mohave Counties. Most areas will see winds increasing to 20-30 mph, but some areas across western San Bernardino County will see winds 30-40 mph. The latest NBM gives Barstow about a 50-55% chance of winds reaching 40 mph, a 20-25% chance of winds reaching 45 mph, and less than 10% chance of winds reaching 50 mph. Like the previous shift mentioned uncertainty does remain in the spatial extent and duration of 40+ mph wind gusts, as well as their impact to population centers and roadways. Have elected to hold off on any wind advisories at this point. The nice convergence boundary that brought showers and thunderstorms to central Nevada and northern Inyo County has weakened and shifted east, however, there will be enough moisture and instability remaining to bring a few isolated showers and possible thunderstorms to portions of Lincoln County and the Sierra crest this afternoon, but overall coverage will be a lot lower than Saturday. With the trough axis swinging through the region Monday we will continue to see a few showers over portions of Lincoln County along with gusty afternoon southwest winds. Once again, most areas will see winds Monday afternoon 20-30 mph with western San Bernardino County seeing winds gusting up to 40 mph. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday. As one trough exits the area Tuesday, another system digging south down the British Columbia coast will reestablish the longwave trough across the west heading into the Memorial Day Weekend. Both the GEFS and EPS maintain H5 heights below normal through at least Saturday. Temperatures will be at or below normal during the period. Should be windy at times with gusts 30 to 40 mph at times across the western Mojave Desert of San Bernardino County and the southern Sierra. Elsewhere, it will be breezy with gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range. For the time being, any precipitation chances stay across central Nevada but may sag as far south as the panhandle of Lincoln County Saturday. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds will become light and variable after 12Z this morning then south-southwest winds will increase with gusts 20-25 knots early this afternoon through this evening. No operationally significant clouds are expected. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Gusty west to southwest winds will pick up again over most of the region early this afternoon, with the strongest afternoon gusts 30-35 knots in the Barstow area. There could also be brief downslope winds and rotors on the east side of mountain ranges such as the Sierra Nevada and the Spring Mountains on the west side of Las Vegas. Isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be confined to eastern Nevada between Pioche and Ely with clouds bases around 15 kft MSL. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gorelow LONG TERM...Pierce AVIATION...Adair For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter