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505
FXUS61 KBUF 301513
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1113 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Sunny but cool today...some patchy frost will be possible tonight
well inland from the lakes in the typical colder locales. Warmer
Friday and Saturday but dry. The next chance of showers or
thunderstorms arrives Saturday night into Sunday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Some fair weather cu will be found over the area this afternoon.

Otherwise...sunny with light northerly flow of 5 to 15 mph and cool
today.

Tonight...the main concern will be low temps. With largely clear
skies expected temps will fall back into the 40s, and in the colder
spots into the 30s.

Frost potential...

The best shot at seeing frost tonight will be in our typical colder
spots across the Southern Tier. A shortwave clipping our eastern
forecast area (North Country) may bring in enough moisture (high
clouds) to limit this threat. Overall confidence is pretty low but
it would be wise to bring in sensitive plants.

Friday...high pressure will drift into the area providing sun-filled
skies and warming temps. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A sharp mid level ridge and surface high pressure will gradually
move across the region from west to east Friday and Saturday,
resulting in a stretch of fair and dry weather. Lots of sunshine
each day, with daytime highs near normal Friday then warming into
the mid 70s to around 80 on Saturday. Good radiational cooling
Friday night with the surface high overhead. Lows in the 40s at most
locations.

Late Saturday night and Sunday most 00z models bring the remnants of
a convectively induced shortwave across our area. The system will be
weakening as it moves through, but model agreement supports at least
a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm with this wave. Even
so, Sunday will be far from a washout with the vast majority of the
time being rain-free even if there`s more cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly dry weather across the region Sunday night through Monday
night as upper level ridging is briefly reestablished over the
eastern Great Lakes. The overall longwave pattern across the eastern
CONUS becomes fairly uncertain moving into Tuesday, with 00Z
guidance trending slower in bringing any showers in. In general, a
trough digging across the Upper Plains will establish a warm and
moist pattern courtesy of GOMEX based moisture which will spread
into the region. Can`t rule out showers and possibly a thunderstorm
Tuesday and Wednesday. Warm pattern with above normal temperatures
and highs ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Fair weather cu will be present but VFR will continue through this
entire TAF cycle.

Tonight...VFR for all TAF sites. While there will be some fog in the
Southern Tier valleys, a drier airmass will limit its coverage.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday...VFR.
Sunday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers.
Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for a shower across the
Southern Tier.
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&&

.MARINE...
Light northerly flow will bring some modest chop to the lakes
today.

Winds will back to westerly later Thursday...and then eventually
become light and variable Friday into the weekend as the surface
high crests over the Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...Apffel
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...AR