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046
FXUS61 KBUF 290559
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
159 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A secondary cold front will drop across the region today, sparking a
few showers across Western New York along and south of the New York
State Thruway. Behind this cold front skies will clear, allowing for
excellent radiational cooling conditions both for tonight as well as
tomorrow night...when temperatures drop into the low to mid 40s, and
upper 30s in the traditionally colder valleys of the Southern Tier
and possibly within the Tug Hill region. Dry weather for the end of
the week with day to day warming through the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A shortwave trough will move east and exit the region tonight. With
dwindling support for shower activity southeast and east of Lake
Ontario. We will remain overcast though with temperatures settling
into the low to mid 50s.

While the base of the longwave trough will remain centered over our
region on Wednesday...shortwaves moving through the deep cyclonic
flow should largely track by to our south. A weak secondary cold
front will stall across Pennsylvania at that time as well...so the
only organized shower activity for our area will be over the western
Southern Tier. Otherwise...partial clearing will be found further to
the north...particularly east of Lake Ontario. Unfortunately...high
temperatures will once again only in the 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mid-level trough axis will sweep across the eastern Great Lakes
Wednesday night through Thursday. Despite the trough overhead,
departing low pressure and surface cold front across the southern
Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic coast line Wednesday night, will
give way Thursday to surface high pressure gradually building east
into the eastern Great Lakes. Surface high pressure will then reside
across the area through Saturday.

Given the weather pattern, dry weather will persist from Wednesday
night through Saturday. In addition to the dry weather, temperatures
will start off on the chillier side for the end of May with lows
Wednesday and Thursday nights bottoming out in the 40s with a few
upper 30s possible across the higher terrain of the Western Southern
Tier and the eastern Lake Ontario region. With the exit of the mid-
level trough, temperatures will gradually warm by the end of the
week. Highs by Saturday will range in the 70s, with the warmer
readings occuring across the Lake Plains and the Genesee Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A broad upper level ridge and surface high pressure will shift east
of the region through the back half of the weekend. While this
should allow for generally quiet and rain-free weather to persist
across the eastern Great Lakes, confidence is low in how quickly the
ridge breaks down. Depending on how this longwave pattern evolves,
some weak shortwave energy and a small uptick and moisture could
sneak in from the west and bring a few showers or thunderstorms to
the region Saturday night through Monday, though chances remain low
(15-30%). More potent shortwave energy and deeper moisture is
expected to move into the Great Lakes region moving further into the
workweek, which will bring greater chances for more widespread
precipitation by Tuesday.

With high pressure ridging moving towards and away from the East
Coast leading to a gentle prevailing southerly flow, temperatures
will continue to see a day-to-day warming trend this period. High
temperatures moving into the first week of June are expected to be
mainly in the 80s, with overnight lows in the upper 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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For the 06Z TAFS, a secondary cold front will drop across the region
today, sparking a few showers across WNY south of the NYS Thruway.

While ceiling heights will largely lower to MVFR in the deeper
moisture ahead of the front this morning, higher terrain of the
Southern Tier, including KJHW will likely drop to IFR. Some patchy
fog is possible near KIAG before sunrise, but confidence is low as
MVFR clouds aloft may keep this fog from forming.

Behind this cold front, a much drier airmass will scatter out clouds
with all areas VFR by late afternoon.

High pressure slowly nosing its way eastward will bring clear skies,
light winds and VFR flight conditions tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday through Saturday...VFR.
Sunday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Ahead of an area of surface high pressure slowly building eastward
today will continue a light northerly flow on the Lakes today and
into Thursday morning, with a modest chop along the south shorelines
of the Lakes.

Winds will back to westerly later Thursday...and eventually become
light and variable by Saturday morning as the surface high crests
over the Lakes.
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&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...AR/HSK/Thomas
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas