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098
FXUS62 KCAE 170204
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1004 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper ridging will keep conditions dry through tonight. Shower
and thunderstorm chances increase again Friday and especially on
Saturday with unsettled weather likely lingering into Sunday. A
cooler and drier air mass moves in for Monday and Tuesday with
temperatures rebounding during the middle of next week as
another ridge moves in from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Dry mid and upper levels, with some low-level moisture, will remain
this evening and into tonight. Satellite PW estimates are around 1"
with surface dewpoints across the area in the 60s. Some moisture
increase is possible aloft late tonight into Friday morning ahead of
the next system, with mainly some cirrus moving across the region.
The potential for patchy fog development is somewhat unclear, since
the approaching cirrus may disrupt radiational cooling enough to
inhibit its formation. Models are not overly excited about
visibility reductions, so confidence is low but it cannot be ruled
out completely given generally calm boundary layer conditions and
dewpoints depressions forecast to be less than 2 degrees. That said,
overnight lows drop into the mid 60s tonight.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PWs will begin to increase in advance of the slow moving trough,
progged to push through the region over and through the region
Friday night through Sunday. Clouds will increase as a result of
the increasing moisture, and this should hold temperatures down
into the low to mid 80s for highs for most. Rain is expected to
begin developing in the late afternoon with more widespread
coverage likely as isentropic lift increases across the area
ahead of the shortwave trough. Lows overnight should remain in
the upper 60s given the rain and cloud cover. Saturday`s
forecast is at least interesting, but skepticism regarding
overall severe threat is fairly high. While ensemble guidance is
fairly bullish with probability for some instability & shear
across the southern FA, clouds are expected to be widespread and
with at least some rain remaining across the area, it is
uncertain whether we`ll be able to destabilize enough or not.
Synoptic forcing looks good, but there is not a strong, definite
low-level forcing mechanism that would focus convection. CSU
probabilities are elevated across the southern FA and that is
definitely the spot if we have severe convection Saturday. Highs
on Saturday are very dependent on cloud cover, but should range
from the upper 70s to the mid 80s across the FA. Some shower
activity will probably hang around thru the overnight hours,
with lows falling into the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Continue to expect showers and thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon
as the upper level trough swings overhead. The cool mid-level
temps could actually yield a favorable environment for strong
thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon, so we will need to keep an
eye on model trends over the next couple of days. There after,
cooler air pushes in on Monday and maybe Tuesday as surface high
pressure ridges into the region. Some indication of weak wedge
conditions setting up on Monday but it is so climatologically
unfavored this time of year that we will need more model
guidance to actually delineate whether or not that happens.
Ridging is expected to push over head through the remainder of
the period, with seasonally low chances for rainfall and above
normal temps by this time next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Generally VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

High-level clouds are expected to filter in beginning overnight,
gradually becoming more broken/overcast and lowering through
the TAF period. Ceilings are anticipated to remain in VFR at all
terminals, but AGS/DNL could flirt with MVFR ceilings close to
17/00z. With low-level moisture remaining in place overnight,
MVFR visibilities are possible at the fog prone AGS and OGB. A
few showers are also possible late in the TAF period for AGS/DNL
so have included VCSH. Can`t rule out a shower late at the
other terminals, but confidence is too low at this time to
include any mention at this time. Winds are expected to be calm
to light and variable through around 13 or 14z, then become
southerly to southwesterly from 5 to 10 kts.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms and
associated restrictions remain possible through Sunday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$