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065
FXUS61 KCTP 311529
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1129 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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*Pleasant rain-free end to May and splendid start to June
*Chance of showers and thunderstorms returns on Sunday
*Trending warmer, more humid, and more unsettled next week
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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After a chilly start this morning with areas of late-season
frost and near-freezing lows in parts of the western and
central Alleghenies, 11AM temps have rebounded nicely into the
60-70F range under a nearly cloudless sky (some high cirrus
drifting southward over NCPA). A light northwest breeze,
abundant sunshine and low dewpoints will allow for a large,
Fall-like diurnal temp range with afternoon highs +25 to +35
degrees warmer than daybreak min temps.

Seasonably strong dome of high pressure will maintain sunny and
pleasant conditions for the last day of May. Only minor change
was to add +1-2 degrees onto the previous maxT fcst owing to
heating/mixing of abnormally dry airmass in place.

Ideal radiational cooling setup again tonight supports minimum
temps in the lowest 5-10th percentile of the NBM range with
frost [advisory?] possible again particularly in the northern
tier cold spots.
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.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
Forecast for Saturday is in good shape with just some minor
tweaks to temps and dewpoints.

Surface and upper level ridging will crest over PA Saturday
morning, resulting in a mostly sunny and warmer start to the
weekend. GEFS 2m temp anomalies Sat afternoon are few degrees
above climo, translating to highs of 75-80 over most of Central
PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Late evening update holds very few changes. Not enough to
mention here, at least. Thursday still looks like the best day
to get wet.

Prev...
A shortwave trough moving through the region late Saturday
night into Sunday. This feature will bring the next chance of
showers and thunderstorms to central PA.

Longer range guidance shows multiple shortwaves moving through
the region into the middle of next week bringing renewed chances
for showers and storms. PoPs have decreased for Monday, which
now looks like it will be a generally dry day. Chance or greater
PoPs return for Tue-Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Nice clear morning here at the office.

Looking at mainly clear skies and VFR conditions prior to late
Saturday night, as high pressure builds over the area.

Some lower conditions into the far west Sunday morning, as
higher dewpoints are advected eastward.

Outlook...

Sat...Mainly clear skies with VFR conditions.

Sun-Tue...Showers and thunderstorms possible.
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&&

.CLIMATE...
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With only 1 day left, the preliminary monthly summary for May
2024 would be notably warmer than the historical average
(ranking in the top 10-15 warmest) with near to above normal
precipitation. CLMs should be issued overnight on the midshift.
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.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Lambert/DeVoir
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Colbert
AVIATION...Martin
CLIMATE...Steinbugl