Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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962 FXUS65 KCYS 250417 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1017 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Precipitation chances Saturday and Sunday before winds return Sunday. A much warmer, milder week ahead as an upper-level ridge overtakes the region. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 102 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024 Pretty quiet weather on tap for the rest of today. Satellite shows a large storm system moving across the northern High Plains and in its wake, substantial clearing and drier conditions have moved into much of the Front Range. Some spots across the Arlington wind prone are still seeing some periodic gusts around 45 mph, but overall the winds across the rest of SE Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle have diminished this afternoon. Heading into Saturday we will be tracking a weak shortwave trough pushing into Wyoming that could bring the chances for some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Still questions remain about the amount of low level moisture and how moist the boundary layer will become. While storms are expected, the limited instability will keep storms from reaching severe limits, but some small hail and gust winds will be possible. Immediately on the heels of this first shortwave a second shortwave will approach the area Saturday night through Sunday morning. This shortwave moves through in a more favorable west to east trajectory to induce some elevated to high winds across the wind prone areas. At the base of this shortwave trough some 50kt mb winds are progged to spread across the I-80 corridor. There could be some strong wind gusts observed along the south Laramie Range and Foothills as well. In-house models are pinpointing the likelihood for strong wind gusts for mainly the Arlington wind prone area but Bordeaux and the I-80 summit may also see periodic gusts of high wind criteria. Expecting a few high wind highlights may be needed. We can`t rule out some pulse thunderstorms across the higher terrain on Sunday as well. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 102 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024 Looking like a dry Memorial Day for those that have outdoor plans. Likely breezy across the area as a shortwave exits to our northeast, but temperatures will be average for late May with afternoon highs in the upper 60s and 70s. Headed into the remainder of the work week, an upper-level ridge will build over the Rockies Tuesday into Wednesday. This will lead to warmer, above average temperatures during this time frame. By Wednesday, highs will be in the upper 70s and low 80s. Ridging will lead to dry conditions on Tuesday, but an embedded disturbance moving through the ridge on Wednesday could spark some afternoon and evening convection. Per GFS soundings for Wednesday afternoon, there is the potential for severe storms. Soundings from across the Nebraska panhandle do show over 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE, leading to a large hail risk. Will also have to keep an eye on PWs as these same soundings are encroaching on 1 inch PWs. Cloud layer winds are also on the slower side which could lead to the potential for minor flooding. Luckily, effective shear values aren`t too high, but this should also be monitored in the coming days. Thursday looks like it could be a repeat of Wednesday. An upper- level trough spinning over the Pacific Northwest will send moist, southerly flow into the CWA. High dewpoints in the panhandle could spark thunderstorms, which could be spicier than Wednesday`s storms with a greater potential for severe weather based on GFS soundings. Higher CAPE values and stronger effective shear could make all modes of severe weather possible Thursday afternoon and evening. Of course, this is still seven days out so things could change, but it will be something to watch headed into next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
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Issued at 1003 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024 Westerly flow aloft will become southwest overnight, while a weather disturbance and increased moisture bring scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. Wyoming TAFS...Ceilings will lower from 11000 to 15000 feet overnight, to 4000 to 8000 feet on Saturday. Showers will be in the vicinity of the terminals from 15Z to 00Z. Winds will gust to 25 knots from 15Z to 00Z. Nebraska TAFS...Mostly clear skies will become broken clouds around 12000 feet after sunrise, then lower to 6000 to 10000 feet Saturday evening. Showers will be in the vicinity of the terminals after 00Z, except at Chadron.
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&& .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...AW LONG TERM...GCC/SF AVIATION...RUBIN