-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
109
FXUS63 KGRR 301736
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
137 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and cooler continues

- Low to Medium confidence in timing of shortwave features in
progressive flow regime

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

No changes to the forecast. High pressure has settled over the
Great Lakes and sunny skies and highs around 70 are expected.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

-Mild and cooler continues

The only major weather concern through Friday will be the chance
for patchy frost early Friday morning. While temperatures will be
slightly warmer, the winds will be calmer and the air mass will be
drier. Due to the lower dewpoints and calmer winds, temps will
have an easier time to drop down into the upper 30s. Any possible
frost will be along and north of the US 10 corridor. As any frost
that does form will be in the low lying areas and fairly
isolated, do not foresee any headline issuance.

Dry air continues to move into the region as a positively tilted
trough exits into the mid Atlantic. An upper level ridge continues
to build over Lower Michigan with high pressure dominating the
pattern through Friday. Expect below normal temperatures today
and tonight with temps just above normal by Friday.


- Low to Medium confidence in timing of shortwave features in
progressive flow regime


Fairly good agreement that a southern Plains low tracks northeast
and brings rain chances on Saturday with highest POPs to the south.
Model soundings show instability is quite limited so only slight
chance thunder.

Guidance envelope shows some spread in the details after this
weekend with a weak signal for rain late Monday and a stronger
signal on Wednesday/Thursday as a better-defined short wave trough
or cut off low approaches from the Northern PLains.



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 126 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR conditions will continue through THursday evening. Light and
variable winds tonight becoming northeast AOB 10 knots on
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 137 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

No impacts to aviation interests expected at the terminals over the
next 24 hours. VFR conditions will dominate with clear skies giving
way to some high cirrus late in the period. Even fog potential is
quite low due to the very dry low levels, and short late spring
nights.

Light winds from the NE will go light and variable tonight, except
at KMKG where the lake breeze will kick in soon and linger through
sunset. Winds will become from the SSW Friday afternoon as the ridge
of high pressure moves east.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Winds and waves have subsided and with high pressure building over
Lake Michigan expect fair winds and waves through at least Friday.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...04
DISCUSSION...Ostuno/Ceru
AVIATION...NJJ
MARINE...Ceru